The Numbers Desk
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Fresno State
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
at
San José State
2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Fresno State -6.5
total 50.5
Our line
Fresno State -6.2
total 48.5
Raw model
Fresno State -5.6
Fresno State 25 · San José State 19.4
no edge

Edge: spread 0.3 pts · total 2.0 pts · model weight 33%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Fresno State by 6.2; Vegas has Fresno State by 6.5. That is a 0.3-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: San José State #67, Fresno State #74 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.San José State's pass game (279 passing yds/game, 33rd in FBS) meets a Fresno State pass defense that ranks 104th in FBS (270 allowed).
  4. 4.Fresno State's pass game (209 passing yds/game, 72nd in FBS) meets a San José State pass defense that ranks 93rd in FBS (251 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: San José State 2-1 (67%), Fresno State 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 33% on our numbers and 67% on the market, with 2 games of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Fresno State line vs San José State front

Fresno State DSan José State D
MetricFresno StateSan José State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.62 (#103) D3.08 (#75) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line22% (#98) D13% (#107) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground33% (#115) D100% (#90) D
Sack ratesacks per dropback4% (#58) C2% (#104) D
Yards per carry4.6 (#65) C4.6 (#72) C

San José State line vs Fresno State front

San José State CFresno State B
MetricSan José StateFresno State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.93 (#73) C2.72 (#42) B
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line23% (#105) D28% (#14) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground33% (#113) D40% (#26) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback1% (#24) B2% (#114) D
Yards per carry4.3 (#84) C3.9 (#37) B

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Fresno State passing vs San José State secondary

Fresno State BSan José State C
MetricFresno StateSan José State allows
Yards per pass play8.9 (#30) B6.2 (#49) C
Completion %73% (#16) A68% (#104) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards19% (#36) B10% (#29) B
Passing yards per game209 (#72) C251 (#93) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home4% (#58) C2% (#104) D
  • Jahlil McClain: 30 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (13, 46)
  • Rayshon Luke: 28 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (7, 49)

San José State passing vs Fresno State secondary

San José State CFresno State D
MetricSan José StateFresno State allows
Yards per pass play7.6 (#45) B8.7 (#109) D
Completion %61% (#76) C70% (#112) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards15% (#62) C16% (#80) C
Passing yards per game279 (#33) B270 (#104) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home1% (#24) B2% (#114) D
  • Cooper Hoch: 96 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (115, 77)
  • Carson Clark: 70 yds/game on 6.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (58, 81)
  • Jordan Anderson: 37 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (30, 44)

Fresno State

Points per game
24.5
allows 21.0
last 2 games
25 pts/game
allowing 21
Rushing
126 yds/game
allows 134
Passing
209 yds/game
allows 270

QB Jayden Mandal (197 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Bryson Donelson (59 rush yds/game) · WR Jayon Farrar (5 rec yds/game)

San José State

Points per game
26.5
allows 31.5
last 2 games
27 pts/game
allowing 32
Rushing
122 yds/game
allows 145
Passing
279 yds/game
allows 251

QB Luke Weaver (263 pass yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INT) · RB Jabari Bates (106 rush yds/game) · WR Jabari Bates (12 rec yds/game)