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Purdue
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
UCLA
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- UCLA -14
- total 52.5
- Our line
- UCLA -13.7
- total 52.9
- Raw model
- UCLA -12.4
- Purdue 20.9 · UCLA 33.4
no edge
Edge: spread 0.3 pts · total 0.4 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it UCLA by 13.7; Vegas has UCLA by 14. That is a 0.3-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: UCLA #23, Purdue #50 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.UCLA's run game (251 rushing yds/game, 11th in FBS) meets a Purdue run defense that ranks 106th in FBS (199 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: UCLA 2-0 (100%), Purdue 1-1.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Purdue line vs UCLA front
Purdue CUCLA C
| Metric | Purdue | UCLA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.91 (#76) C | 2.84 (#54) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 25% (#121) F | 21% (#48) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#31) B | 100% (#118) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 7% (#90) D | 4% (#73) C |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 (#82) C | 3.8 (#33) B |
UCLA line vs Purdue front
UCLA BPurdue D
| Metric | UCLA | Purdue allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 4.11 (#1) A | 3.11 (#79) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 7% (#5) A | 11% (#121) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#24) B | 100% (#122) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 8% (#110) D | 7% (#43) B |
| Yards per carry | 7.3 (#6) A | 5.2 (#101) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Purdue passing vs UCLA secondary
Purdue BUCLA B
| Metric | Purdue | UCLA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.8 (#70) C | 5.0 (#20) A |
| Completion % | 76% (#12) A | 50% (#12) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 13% (#77) C | 13% (#51) C |
| Passing yards per game | 305 (#24) B | 168 (#32) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 7% (#90) D | 4% (#73) C |
- Asaad Waseem: 86 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (107, 65)
- Xavier Townsend: 53 yds/game on 6.5 catches over the last 2 games (47, 58)
- Chauncey Magwood: 42 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (6, 77)
UCLA passing vs Purdue secondary
UCLA CPurdue C
| Metric | UCLA | Purdue allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.5 (#77) C | 7.4 (#82) C |
| Completion % | 64% (#57) C | 59% (#48) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 15% (#66) C | 21% (#118) F |
| Passing yards per game | 157 (#102) D | 215 (#62) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 8% (#110) D | 7% (#43) B |
- Brian Rowe Jr.: 46 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (28, 63)
- Semaj Morgan: 43 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (13, 73)
Purdue
- Points per game
- 36.0
- allows 38.0
- last game
- 36 pts/game
- allowing 38
- Rushing
- 156 yds/game
- allows 199
- Passing
- 305 yds/game
- allows 215
QB Ryan Browne (323 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Fame Ijeboi (101 rush yds/game) · WR Chauncey Magwood (42 rec yds/game)
UCLA
- Points per game
- 36.5
- allows 17.0
- last 2 games
- 37 pts/game
- allowing 17
- Rushing
- 251 yds/game
- allows 139
- Passing
- 157 yds/game
- allows 168
QB Nico Iamaleava (168 pass yds/game, 0 TD, 2 INT) · RB Wayne Knight (84 rush yds/game) · WR Brian Rowe Jr. (46 rec yds/game)