The Numbers Desk
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Northern Illinois
0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1
at
Arizona
1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Arizona -34.5
total 49.5
Our line
Arizona -33.4
total 48.9
Raw model
Arizona -29.1
Northern Illinois 8.7 · Arizona 37.8
no edge

Edge: spread 1.1 pts · total 0.6 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Arizona by 33.4; Vegas has Arizona by 34.5. That is a 1.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Arizona #114, Northern Illinois #132 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Arizona's run game (117 rushing yds/game, 98th in FBS) meets a Northern Illinois run defense that ranks bottom five in FBS (133rd of 137) (289 allowed).
  4. 4.Against the spread this season: Arizona 0-2 (0%), Northern Illinois 0-2.
  5. 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Northern Illinois line vs Arizona front

Northern Illinois DArizona D
MetricNorthern IllinoisArizona allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run1.65 (#134) F3.65 (#127) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line29% (#125) F14% (#98) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#15) A100% (#126) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback20% (#136) F4% (#84) C
Yards per carry1.8 (#136) F5.4 (#106) D

Arizona line vs Northern Illinois front

Arizona CNorthern Illinois C
MetricArizonaNorthern Illinois allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.09 (#55) C3.29 (#101) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line18% (#69) C21% (#42) B
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground67% (#82) C33% (#21) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback9% (#116) D0% (#120) F
Yards per carry4.2 (#90) D7.6 (#135) F

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Northern Illinois passing vs Arizona secondary

Northern Illinois DArizona C
MetricNorthern IllinoisArizona allows
Yards per pass play3.5 (#128) F7.7 (#88) C
Completion %54% (#114) D62% (#60) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards17% (#50) C15% (#67) C
Passing yards per game104 (#125) F207 (#54) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home20% (#136) F4% (#84) C
  • La'Don Bryant: 45 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (42, 47)
  • DeAree Rogers: 39 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (3, 74)
  • Telly Johnson Jr.: 7 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (3, 10)

Arizona passing vs Northern Illinois secondary

Arizona CNorthern Illinois B
MetricArizonaNorthern Illinois allows
Yards per pass play6.8 (#71) C5.5 (#27) B
Completion %74% (#15) A53% (#17) A
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards12% (#95) D13% (#45) B
Passing yards per game230 (#60) C218 (#68) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home9% (#116) D0% (#120) F
  • Gio Richardson: 72 yds/game on 6.5 catches over the last 2 games (96, 48)
  • Tre Spivey: 30 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (45, 14)
  • Rodney Gallagher: 22 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (17, 26)

Northern Illinois

Points per game
0.0
allows 40.0
last game
0 pts/game
allowing 40
Rushing
43 yds/game
allows 289
Passing
104 yds/game
allows 218

QB Taron Dickens (145 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INT) · RB Telly Johnson Jr. (50 rush yds/game) · WR Telly Johnson Jr. (7 rec yds/game)

Arizona

Points per game
17.0
allows 28.0
last game
17 pts/game
allowing 28
Rushing
117 yds/game
allows 158
Passing
230 yds/game
allows 207

QB Noah Fifita (246 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INT) · RB Kedrick Reescano (49 rush yds/game) · WR Gio Richardson (72 rec yds/game)