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North Dakota State
3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2
Sacramento State
1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 1-2
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- North Dakota State -27.5
- total 51.5
- Our line
- North Dakota State -27.2
- total 49.4
- Raw model
- North Dakota State -26.7
- North Dakota State 35.9 · Sacramento State 9.3
no edge
Edge: spread 0.3 pts · total 2.1 pts · model weight 33%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it North Dakota State by 27.2; Vegas has North Dakota State by 27.5. That is a 0.3-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Sacramento State #126, North Dakota State #41 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.North Dakota State's pass game (238 passing yds/game, 53rd in FBS) meets a Sacramento State pass defense that ranks 117th of 137 in FBS (309 allowed).
- 4.North Dakota State's run game (186 rushing yds/game, 39th in FBS) meets a Sacramento State run defense that ranks 63rd in FBS (143 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: Sacramento State 1-2 (33%), North Dakota State 2-1.
- 6.Trust level: 33% on our numbers and 67% on the market, with 2 games of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
North Dakota State line vs Sacramento State front
North Dakota State CSacramento State C
| Metric | North Dakota State | Sacramento State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.97 (#67) C | 2.73 (#47) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 15% (#47) B | 22% (#36) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 83% (#54) C | 67% (#50) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 4% (#55) C | 1% (#115) D |
| Yards per carry | 4.7 (#58) C | 4.8 (#81) C |
Sacramento State line vs North Dakota State front
Sacramento State CNorth Dakota State C
| Metric | Sacramento State | North Dakota State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.44 (#114) D | 3.33 (#107) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 32% (#131) F | 11% (#120) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 71% (#74) C | 75% (#67) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 3% (#35) B | 10% (#19) A |
| Yards per carry | 4.0 (#95) D | 4.3 (#65) C |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
North Dakota State passing vs Sacramento State secondary
North Dakota State BSacramento State D
| Metric | North Dakota State | Sacramento State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 9.9 (#19) A | 8.9 (#114) D |
| Completion % | 65% (#49) C | 78% (#126) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 19% (#41) B | 19% (#107) D |
| Passing yards per game | 238 (#53) C | 309 (#117) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 4% (#55) C | 1% (#115) D |
- Jackson Williams: 46 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (38, 53)
- Mekhi Collins: 43 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (41, 44)
- Reis Kessel: 30 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (18, 42)
Sacramento State passing vs North Dakota State secondary
Sacramento State FNorth Dakota State C
| Metric | Sacramento State | North Dakota State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 4.5 (#118) F | 6.6 (#64) C |
| Completion % | 53% (#121) F | 55% (#22) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 6% (#123) F | 17% (#82) C |
| Passing yards per game | 182 (#88) C | 140 (#19) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 3% (#35) B | 10% (#19) A |
- Matthew Coleman: 94 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (141, 47)
- Onterrio Smith Jr.: 43 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (20, 66)
- Isaiah Ene: 13 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (17, 8)
North Dakota State
- Points per game
- 35.5
- allows 19.5
- last 2 games
- 36 pts/game
- allowing 20
- Rushing
- 186 yds/game
- allows 163
- Passing
- 238 yds/game
- allows 140
QB Nathan Hayes (199 pass yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INT) · RB Myles Mitchell (60 rush yds/game) · WR Jackson Williams (50 rec yds/game)
Sacramento State
- Points per game
- 10.0
- allows 38.5
- last 2 games
- 10 pts/game
- allowing 39
- Rushing
- 95 yds/game
- allows 143
- Passing
- 182 yds/game
- allows 309
QB Jackson Sharman (132 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INT) · RB Jamar Curtis (34 rush yds/game) · WR Matthew Coleman (77 rec yds/game)