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James Madison
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
San Diego State
1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- San Diego State -2.5
- total 46.5
- Our line
- San Diego State -1
- total 46
- Raw model
- James Madison -5.1
- James Madison 24.6 · San Diego State 19.5
no edge
Edge: spread 1.5 pts · total 0.5 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it San Diego State by 1.0; Vegas has San Diego State by 2.5. That is a 1.5-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: San Diego State #110, James Madison #32 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.James Madison's run game (173 rushing yds/game, 48th in FBS) meets a San Diego State run defense that ranks 120th of 137 in FBS (226 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: San Diego State 0-2 (0%), James Madison 2-0.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
James Madison line vs San Diego State front
James Madison BSan Diego State C
| Metric | James Madison | San Diego State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.08 (#56) C | 3.69 (#128) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 23% (#103) D | 10% (#124) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#7) A | 0% (#15) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#4) A | 8% (#32) B |
| Yards per carry | 5.6 (#25) B | 5.5 (#109) D |
San Diego State line vs James Madison front
San Diego State CJames Madison C
| Metric | San Diego State | James Madison allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.11 (#50) C | 2.65 (#35) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 23% (#109) D | 11% (#115) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#42) B | 80% (#78) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 10% (#126) F | 7% (#42) B |
| Yards per carry | 4.1 (#94) D | 3.0 (#7) A |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
James Madison passing vs San Diego State secondary
James Madison CSan Diego State B
| Metric | James Madison | San Diego State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.4 (#52) C | 5.9 (#42) B |
| Completion % | 63% (#59) C | 64% (#80) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 16% (#54) C | 13% (#48) B |
| Passing yards per game | 140 (#114) D | 141 (#21) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#4) A | 8% (#32) B |
- Corey Scott: 37 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (21, 52)
- Noah Grevious: 36 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (39, 32)
San Diego State passing vs James Madison secondary
San Diego State FJames Madison D
| Metric | San Diego State | James Madison allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 1.8 (#135) F | 7.2 (#78) C |
| Completion % | 33% (#137) F | 63% (#70) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 5% (#125) F | 24% (#128) F |
| Passing yards per game | 36 (#135) F | 208 (#55) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 10% (#126) F | 7% (#42) B |
- Nathan Acevedo: 27 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (47, 6)
James Madison
- Points per game
- 20.0
- allows 13.0
- last game
- 20 pts/game
- allowing 13
- Rushing
- 173 yds/game
- allows 105
- Passing
- 140 yds/game
- allows 208
QB Camden Coleman (114 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Nick Herman (68 rush yds/game) · WR Braeden Wisloski (18 rec yds/game)
San Diego State
- Points per game
- 10.0
- allows 28.0
- last game
- 10 pts/game
- allowing 28
- Rushing
- 142 yds/game
- allows 226
- Passing
- 36 yds/game
- allows 141
QB Jayden Denegal (91 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INT) · RB Lucky Sutton (70 rush yds/game) · WR Bert Emanuel Jr. (5 rec yds/game)