The Numbers Desk
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Arkansas State
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
at
TCU
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
TCU -20.5
total 56.5
Our line
TCU -20.4
total 56.3
Raw model
TCU -20
Arkansas State 17.7 · TCU 37.7
no edge

Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total 0.2 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it TCU by 20.4; Vegas has TCU by 20.5. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: TCU #90, Arkansas State #119 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.TCU's run game (159 rushing yds/game, 51st in FBS) meets a Arkansas State run defense that ranks dead last in FBS (343 allowed).
  4. 4.Arkansas State's pass game (344 passing yds/game, 8th in FBS) meets a TCU pass defense that ranks 52nd in FBS (204 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: TCU 1-1 (50%), Arkansas State 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Arkansas State line vs TCU front

Arkansas State BTCU B
MetricArkansas StateTCU allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.22 (#44) B3.26 (#94) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line12% (#21) A16% (#80) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#17) A0% (#1) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback9% (#118) F10% (#17) A
Yards per carry5.0 (#38) B4.2 (#54) C

TCU line vs Arkansas State front

TCU CArkansas State C
MetricTCUArkansas State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.94 (#71) C3.55 (#121) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line15% (#44) B13% (#106) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground75% (#64) C33% (#22) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback6% (#74) C6% (#51) C
Yards per carry4.7 (#60) C7.3 (#131) F

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Arkansas State passing vs TCU secondary

Arkansas State ATCU C
MetricArkansas StateTCU allows
Yards per pass play10.4 (#13) A6.8 (#66) C
Completion %70% (#29) B56% (#24) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards27% (#5) A20% (#112) D
Passing yards per game344 (#8) A204 (#52) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home9% (#118) F10% (#17) A
  • Chauncy Cobb: 65 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (75, 54)
  • Hunter Summers: 54 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (98, 9)
  • Kenyon Clay: 45 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (85, 4)

TCU passing vs Arkansas State secondary

TCU DArkansas State F
MetricTCUArkansas State allows
Yards per pass play4.8 (#115) D12.3 (#135) F
Completion %63% (#69) C80% (#131) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards9% (#112) D44% (#137) F
Passing yards per game163 (#100) D197 (#49) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home6% (#74) C6% (#51) C
  • Ed Small: 83 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last 2 games (65, 101)
  • Kari Ashley: 68 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (17, 119)
  • Jeremy Scott: 45 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (3, 87)

Arkansas State

Points per game
24.0
allows 42.0
last game
24 pts/game
allowing 42
Rushing
131 yds/game
allows 343
Passing
344 yds/game
allows 197

QB Trey Owens (230 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INT) · RB Kenyon Clay (50 rush yds/game) · WR Chauncy Cobb (65 rec yds/game)

TCU

Points per game
10.0
allows 15.0
last game
10 pts/game
allowing 15
Rushing
159 yds/game
allows 104
Passing
163 yds/game
allows 204

QB Jaden Craig (283 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jeremy Payne (111 rush yds/game) · WR Jeremy Payne (17 rec yds/game)