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UTSA
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
Texas
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Texas -30.5
- total 58.5
- Our line
- Texas -29.1
- total 58.6
- Raw model
- Texas -23.5
- UTSA 17.7 · Texas 41.2
no edge
Edge: spread 1.4 pts · total 0.1 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Texas by 29.1; Vegas has Texas by 30.5. That is a 1.4-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Texas #44, UTSA #73 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Texas's run game (162 rushing yds/game, 49th in FBS) meets a UTSA run defense that ranks 132nd of 137 in FBS (280 allowed).
- 4.UTSA's pass game (258 passing yds/game, 44th in FBS) meets a Texas pass defense that ranks 70th in FBS (223 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: Texas 1-1 (50%), UTSA 2-0.
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
UTSA line vs Texas front
UTSA CTexas B
| Metric | UTSA | Texas allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.83 (#88) C | 2.72 (#41) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 19% (#78) C | 20% (#55) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 50% (#104) D | 50% (#33) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#16) A | 5% (#69) C |
| Yards per carry | 4.5 (#68) C | 4.1 (#49) C |
Texas line vs UTSA front
Texas CUTSA D
| Metric | Texas | UTSA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.83 (#87) C | 3.74 (#131) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 21% (#85) C | 6% (#133) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 90% (#51) C | 0% (#13) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 4% (#57) C | 0% (#128) F |
| Yards per carry | 4.4 (#76) C | 5.8 (#119) F |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
UTSA passing vs Texas secondary
UTSA DTexas C
| Metric | UTSA | Texas allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.0 (#91) D | 7.0 (#69) C |
| Completion % | 67% (#40) B | 61% (#53) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 7% (#121) F | 16% (#74) C |
| Passing yards per game | 258 (#44) B | 223 (#70) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#16) A | 5% (#69) C |
- DJ Allen: 70 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (116, 24)
- Mekhi Anderson: 63 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (42, 83)
- AJ Wilson: 63 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (42, 83)
Texas passing vs UTSA secondary
Texas BUTSA C
| Metric | Texas | UTSA allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.3 (#53) C | 7.0 (#68) C |
| Completion % | 68% (#38) B | 57% (#35) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 21% (#27) B | 14% (#60) C |
| Passing yards per game | 264 (#39) B | 195 (#48) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 4% (#57) C | 0% (#128) F |
- Ryan Wingo: 72 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (121, 22)
- Cam Coleman: 53 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (70, 35)
- Emmett Mosley V: 51 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (37, 65)
UTSA
- Points per game
- 31.0
- allows 26.0
- last game
- 31 pts/game
- allowing 26
- Rushing
- 140 yds/game
- allows 280
- Passing
- 258 yds/game
- allows 195
QB Owen McCown (245 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Will Henderson III (90 rush yds/game) · WR AJ Wilson (63 rec yds/game)
Texas
- Points per game
- 41.5
- allows 15.0
- last 2 games
- 42 pts/game
- allowing 15
- Rushing
- 162 yds/game
- allows 135
- Passing
- 264 yds/game
- allows 223
QB Arch Manning (250 pass yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INT) · RB Daylan Smothers (72 rush yds/game) · WR Ryan Wingo (72 rec yds/game)