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UAB
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
Louisiana
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Louisiana -7.5
- total 56.5
- Our line
- Louisiana -9
- total 58
- Raw model
- Louisiana -14.8
- UAB 24.6 · Louisiana 39.4
no edge
Edge: spread 1.5 pts · total 1.5 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Louisiana by 9.0; Vegas has Louisiana by 7.5. That is a 1.5-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Louisiana #20, UAB #82 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.UAB's run game (223 rushing yds/game, 20th in FBS) meets a Louisiana run defense that ranks 112th of 137 in FBS (207 allowed).
- 4.Louisiana's run game (150 rushing yds/game, 66th in FBS) meets a UAB run defense that ranks 96th in FBS (179 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: Louisiana 2-0 (100%), UAB 1-1.
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
UAB line vs Louisiana front
UAB BLouisiana D
| Metric | UAB | Louisiana allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.43 (#20) A | 3.31 (#105) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 14% (#38) B | 18% (#72) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 86% (#52) C | 100% (#137) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 8% (#106) D | 0% (#137) F |
| Yards per carry | 4.7 (#55) C | 5.2 (#97) D |
Louisiana line vs UAB front
Louisiana BUAB C
| Metric | Louisiana | UAB allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.80 (#91) D | 3.35 (#108) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 17% (#63) C | 15% (#85) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#48) B | 44% (#28) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#20) A | 5% (#59) C |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 (#34) B | 5.4 (#104) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
UAB passing vs Louisiana secondary
UAB CLouisiana C
| Metric | UAB | Louisiana allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.6 (#47) B | 8.8 (#112) D |
| Completion % | 55% (#109) D | 65% (#84) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 12% (#97) D | 16% (#78) C |
| Passing yards per game | 194 (#82) C | 274 (#107) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 8% (#106) D | 0% (#137) F |
- EJ Reid: 46 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (26, 65)
- Tiaquelin Mims: 32 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (52, 11)
Louisiana passing vs UAB secondary
Louisiana BUAB B
| Metric | Louisiana | UAB allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 9.6 (#24) B | 6.1 (#46) B |
| Completion % | 73% (#19) A | 62% (#66) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 18% (#44) B | 8% (#15) A |
| Passing yards per game | 212 (#71) C | 118 (#9) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#20) A | 5% (#59) C |
- Russell Babineaux: 48 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (4, 91)
- Teddy Gawlik: 29 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (22, 36)
UAB
- Points per game
- 24.5
- allows 31.0
- last 2 games
- 25 pts/game
- allowing 31
- Rushing
- 223 yds/game
- allows 179
- Passing
- 194 yds/game
- allows 118
QB Ryder Burton (167 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INT) · RB Roderick Robinson II (87 rush yds/game) · WR Kaleb Brown (10 rec yds/game)
Louisiana
- Points per game
- 30.0
- allows 49.0
- last game
- 30 pts/game
- allowing 49
- Rushing
- 150 yds/game
- allows 207
- Passing
- 212 yds/game
- allows 274
QB D'Wayne' Winfield (201 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INT) · RB Darrell Smith (42 rush yds/game) · WR Russell Babineaux (48 rec yds/game)