The Numbers Desk
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Kennesaw State
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2
at
Tennessee
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:45 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Tennessee -35.5
total 59.5
Our line
Tennessee -35.3
total 59.3
Raw model
Tennessee -34.6
Kennesaw State 12.1 · Tennessee 46.6
no edge

Edge: spread 0.2 pts · total 0.2 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Tennessee by 35.3; Vegas has Tennessee by 35.5. That is a 0.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Tennessee #13, Kennesaw State #111 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Tennessee's run game (300 rushing yds/game, 3rd in FBS) meets a Kennesaw State run defense that ranks 118th of 137 in FBS (219 allowed).
  4. 4.Kennesaw State's pass game (256 passing yds/game, 46th in FBS) meets a Tennessee pass defense that ranks 92nd in FBS (247 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Tennessee 1-1 (50%), Kennesaw State 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Kennesaw State line vs Tennessee front

Kennesaw State CTennessee C
MetricKennesaw StateTennessee allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.74 (#93) D4.07 (#137) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line35% (#134) F7% (#131) F
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#39) B0% (#14) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback3% (#39) B9% (#21) A
Yards per carry3.8 (#103) D6.0 (#120) F

Tennessee line vs Kennesaw State front

Tennessee BKennesaw State C
MetricTennesseeKennesaw State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.66 (#5) A3.11 (#81) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line14% (#34) B20% (#53) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#41) B75% (#75) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback5% (#64) C0% (#133) F
Yards per carry6.8 (#11) A4.9 (#86) C

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Kennesaw State passing vs Tennessee secondary

Kennesaw State CTennessee C
MetricKennesaw StateTennessee allows
Yards per pass play7.1 (#58) C5.6 (#34) B
Completion %63% (#67) C65% (#89) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards11% (#100) D14% (#53) C
Passing yards per game256 (#46) B247 (#92) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home3% (#39) B9% (#21) A
  • Javon Rogers: 65 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (55, 74)
  • Brayden Munroe: 36 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (18, 54)
  • Zion Booker: 34 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games (16, 52)

Tennessee passing vs Kennesaw State secondary

Tennessee DKennesaw State F
MetricTennesseeKennesaw State allows
Yards per pass play6.7 (#73) C11.0 (#132) F
Completion %48% (#130) F70% (#108) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards14% (#75) C22% (#121) F
Passing yards per game147 (#110) D253 (#96) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home5% (#64) C0% (#133) F
  • Mike Matthews: 74 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (132, 16)
  • Radarious Jackson: 51 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (38, 64)

Kennesaw State

Points per game
17.0
allows 31.0
last game
17 pts/game
allowing 31
Rushing
76 yds/game
allows 219
Passing
256 yds/game
allows 253

QB Rickie Collins (208 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Latrelle Murrell (50 rush yds/game) · WR Zion Booker (34 rec yds/game)

Tennessee

Points per game
45.0
allows 24.0
last game
45 pts/game
allowing 24
Rushing
300 yds/game
allows 162
Passing
147 yds/game
allows 247

QB Faizon Brandon (187 pass yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INT) · RB DeSean Bishop (122 rush yds/game)