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Virginia Tech
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 2-0
Maryland
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Virginia Tech -3
- total 53.5
- Our line
- Virginia Tech -2.2
- total 53.3
- Raw model
- Maryland -0.8
- Virginia Tech 25.8 · Maryland 26.6
no edge
Edge: spread 0.8 pts · total 0.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Virginia Tech by 2.2; Vegas has Virginia Tech by 3. That is a 0.8-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Maryland #39, Virginia Tech #75 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Against the spread this season: Maryland 2-0 (100%), Virginia Tech 2-0.
- 4.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Virginia Tech line vs Maryland front
Virginia Tech DMaryland B
| Metric | Virginia Tech | Maryland allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.16 (#129) F | 2.33 (#16) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 32% (#129) F | 23% (#26) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 60% (#89) C | 100% (#127) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 6% (#85) C | 13% (#7) A |
| Yards per carry | 3.3 (#124) F | 3.4 (#21) A |
Maryland line vs Virginia Tech front
Maryland CVirginia Tech A
| Metric | Maryland | Virginia Tech allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.72 (#96) D | 2.30 (#15) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 20% (#83) C | 36% (#4) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 33% (#118) F | 50% (#37) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 2% (#32) B | 17% (#2) A |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 (#108) D | 6.8 (#128) F |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Virginia Tech passing vs Maryland secondary
Virginia Tech BMaryland B
| Metric | Virginia Tech | Maryland allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.3 (#83) C | 6.3 (#51) C |
| Completion % | 73% (#18) A | 48% (#7) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 19% (#38) B | 13% (#46) B |
| Passing yards per game | 296 (#27) B | 151 (#28) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 6% (#85) C | 13% (#7) A |
- Luke Reynolds: 79 yds/game on 6.5 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (50, 108)
- Que'Sean Brown: 75 yds/game on 6.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (109, 41)
- Ayden Greene: 34 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (23, 44)
Maryland passing vs Virginia Tech secondary
Maryland BVirginia Tech C
| Metric | Maryland | Virginia Tech allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 8.2 (#39) B | 5.3 (#26) B |
| Completion % | 83% (#6) A | 63% (#74) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 17% (#51) C | 13% (#49) C |
| Passing yards per game | 344 (#9) A | 121 (#11) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 2% (#32) B | 17% (#2) A |
- Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding: 94 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (57, 130)
- Chris Durr Jr.: 74 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (44, 103)
- Kaleb Webb: 35 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (9, 60)
Virginia Tech
- Points per game
- 44.0
- allows 21.0
- last game
- 44 pts/game
- allowing 21
- Rushing
- 125 yds/game
- allows 150
- Passing
- 296 yds/game
- allows 121
QB Ethan Grunkemeyer (276 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jeffrey Overton Jr. (76 rush yds/game) · WR Luke Reynolds (79 rec yds/game)
Maryland
- Points per game
- 38.0
- allows 14.0
- last game
- 38 pts/game
- allowing 14
- Rushing
- 131 yds/game
- allows 89
- Passing
- 344 yds/game
- allows 151
QB Malik Washington (267 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Iverson Howard (61 rush yds/game) · WR Chris Durr Jr. (74 rec yds/game)