The Numbers Desk

LSU

2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0

Ole Miss

2-0 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET

The number

Strong: LSU -3Strong: Under 59.5

Edge: spread 3.5 pts · total 6.1 pts · model weight 33%

1.Our number makes it LSU by 6.5; Vegas has LSU by 3. That is a 3.5-point edge toward LSU.
2.Power ratings: Ole Miss #42, LSU #2 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
3.LSU's pass game (401 passing yds/game, 3rd in FBS) meets a Ole Miss pass defense that ranks 97th in FBS (254 allowed).
4.LSU's run game (231 rushing yds/game, 15th in FBS) meets a Ole Miss run defense that ranks 95th in FBS (177 allowed).
5.Totals: we project 53.4 points (89 combined scoring average) against a 59.5 total, so the under.
6.Against the spread this season: Ole Miss 0-2 (0%), LSU 1-1.
7.Trust level: 33% on our numbers and 67% on the market, with 2 games of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

LSU COle Miss B

Metric	LSU	Ole Miss allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run	2.87 (#83) C	2.87 (#59) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line	15% (#51) C	28% (#13) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground	78% (#63) C	67% (#57) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback	6% (#83) C	7% (#48) B
Yards per carry	4.8 (#54) C	5.3 (#103) D

Ole Miss BLSU A

Metric	Ole Miss	LSU allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run	3.47 (#18) A	1.48 (#1) A
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line	18% (#68) C	31% (#10) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground	83% (#57) C	0% (#8) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback	1% (#25) B	20% (#1) A
Yards per carry	4.9 (#50) C	2.0 (#1) A

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

LSU BOle Miss D

Metric	LSU	Ole Miss allows
Yards per pass play	9.9 (#20) A	8.3 (#103) D
Completion %	63% (#62) C	67% (#102) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards	23% (#18) A	20% (#110) D
Passing yards per game	401 (#3) A	254 (#97) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home	6% (#83) C	7% (#48) B

Trey'Dez Green: 81 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (58, 104)
Winston Watkins: 77 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (110, 43)
Eugene Wilson: 64 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games (35, 93)

Ole Miss BLSU B

Metric	Ole Miss	LSU allows
Yards per pass play	8.7 (#32) B	4.3 (#12) A
Completion %	67% (#43) B	59% (#47) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards	16% (#57) C	9% (#23) B
Passing yards per game	309 (#21) A	118 (#10) A
Sack ratepressure the front gets home	1% (#25) B	20% (#1) A

Deuce Alexander: 118 yds/game on 6.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (159, 76)
Horatio Fields: 57 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (47, 66)
Traylon Ray: 28 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (30, 26)

QB Sam Leavitt (287 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INT) · RB Dilin Jones (90 rush yds/game) · WR Trey'Dez Green (81 rec yds/game)

QB Trinidad Chambliss (281 pass yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INT) · RB Kewan Lacy (74 rush yds/game) · WR Johntay Cook II (6 rec yds/game)

Deuce Alexander has 159 and 76 receiving yards over his last 2 games (118 a game on 6.5 catches).
LSU allows 118 passing yards a game, 10th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 71.5. Projection 75 (cleared it 2 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.
Horatio Fields has 47 and 66 receiving yards over his last 2 games (57 a game on 4.5 catches).
LSU allows 118 passing yards a game, 10th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 43.5. Projection 43 (cleared it 2 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.
Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 336 and 225 yards over his last 2 games (281 a game, 5 TD, 1 INT).
LSU allows 118 passing yards a game, 10th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 277.5. Projection 251 (cleared it 1 of 2). This defense makes the under live.