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New Mexico
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
Oklahoma
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Oklahoma -22.5
- total 46.5
- Our line
- Oklahoma -20.3
- total 45.3
- Raw model
- Oklahoma -11.7
- New Mexico 14.4 · Oklahoma 26.1
no edge
Edge: spread 2.2 pts · total 1.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Oklahoma by 20.3; Vegas has Oklahoma by 22.5. That is a 2.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Oklahoma #54, New Mexico #10 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.New Mexico's run game (204 rushing yds/game, 30th in FBS) meets a Oklahoma run defense that ranks 80th in FBS (156 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Oklahoma 1-1 (50%), New Mexico 2-0.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
New Mexico line vs Oklahoma front
New Mexico BOklahoma B
| Metric | New Mexico | Oklahoma allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.58 (#11) A | 2.59 (#32) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 7% (#6) A | 18% (#69) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#22) B | 50% (#31) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 7% (#100) D | 15% (#4) A |
| Yards per carry | 5.0 (#44) B | 4.6 (#71) C |
Oklahoma line vs New Mexico front
Oklahoma CNew Mexico C
| Metric | Oklahoma | New Mexico allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.30 (#31) B | 3.59 (#124) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 22% (#102) D | 0% (#136) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 75% (#67) C | 50% (#36) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 7% (#97) D | 11% (#13) A |
| Yards per carry | 4.9 (#47) B | 5.0 (#92) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
New Mexico passing vs Oklahoma secondary
New Mexico COklahoma A
| Metric | New Mexico | Oklahoma allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.5 (#102) D | 4.2 (#10) A |
| Completion % | 68% (#39) B | 54% (#20) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 11% (#99) D | 7% (#13) A |
| Passing yards per game | 148 (#109) D | 86 (#5) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 7% (#100) D | 15% (#4) A |
- Cade Keith: 46 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (28, 63)
- Troy Omeire: 45 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (20, 70)
Oklahoma passing vs New Mexico secondary
Oklahoma CNew Mexico A
| Metric | Oklahoma | New Mexico allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.6 (#46) B | 1.1 (#1) A |
| Completion % | 56% (#102) D | 44% (#1) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 20% (#35) B | 0% (#1) A |
| Passing yards per game | 213 (#70) C | 19 (#1) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 7% (#97) D | 11% (#13) A |
- Rocky Beers: 69 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (43, 94)
- Trell Harris: 52 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (61, 43)
- Isaiah Sategna: 43 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (76, 9)
New Mexico
- Points per game
- 38.0
- allows 7.0
- last game
- 38 pts/game
- allowing 7
- Rushing
- 204 yds/game
- allows 146
- Passing
- 148 yds/game
- allows 19
QB Luke Moga (99 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Scottre Humphrey (87 rush yds/game) · WR Kiefer Sibley (4 rec yds/game)
Oklahoma
- Points per game
- 30.5
- allows 8.5
- last 2 games
- 31 pts/game
- allowing 9
- Rushing
- 154 yds/game
- allows 156
- Passing
- 213 yds/game
- allows 86
QB John Mateer (207 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INT) · RB Lloyd Avant (57 rush yds/game) · WR Isaiah Sategna (43 rec yds/game)