The Numbers Desk
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BYU
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
at
Colorado State
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 2-0

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET

The number

Vegas
BYU -17.5
total 52.5
Our line
BYU -17.6
total 51.4
Raw model
BYU -18.2
BYU 32.6 · Colorado State 14.5
no edge

Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total 1.1 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it BYU by 17.6; Vegas has BYU by 17.5. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Colorado State #31, BYU #22 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Colorado State's pass game (242 passing yds/game, 51st in FBS) meets a BYU pass defense that ranks 78th in FBS (230 allowed).
  4. 4.BYU's run game (158 rushing yds/game, 53rd in FBS) meets a Colorado State run defense that ranks 71st in FBS (152 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Colorado State 2-0 (100%), BYU 2-0.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

BYU line vs Colorado State front

BYU BColorado State C
MetricBYUColorado State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.65 (#6) A3.38 (#113) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line14% (#37) B13% (#105) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#36) B0% (#6) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback4% (#51) C5% (#63) C
Yards per carry5.4 (#27) B4.9 (#87) C

Colorado State line vs BYU front

Colorado State BBYU C
MetricColorado StateBYU allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.49 (#109) D3.09 (#77) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line21% (#91) D18% (#65) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#16) A67% (#58) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback0% (#7) A9% (#23) B
Yards per carry4.7 (#61) C4.2 (#57) C

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

BYU passing vs Colorado State secondary

BYU CColorado State C
MetricBYUColorado State allows
Yards per pass play7.7 (#44) B6.6 (#62) C
Completion %62% (#74) C63% (#73) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards15% (#65) C15% (#68) C
Passing yards per game207 (#74) C132 (#17) A
Sack ratepressure the front gets home4% (#51) C5% (#63) C
  • Legend Glasker: 70 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (65, 74)
  • Kyler Kasper: 47 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (42, 51)
  • Walker Lyons: 22 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (22, 22)

Colorado State passing vs BYU secondary

Colorado State CBYU C
MetricColorado StateBYU allows
Yards per pass play7.1 (#57) C6.8 (#65) C
Completion %71% (#27) B74% (#121) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards12% (#93) D12% (#41) B
Passing yards per game242 (#51) C230 (#78) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home0% (#7) A9% (#23) B
  • Jackson Harper: 70 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (38, 102)
  • Terrence Smith Jr.: 60 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (29, 90)
  • Reginald Vick Jr: 54 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (75, 33)

BYU

Points per game
28.0
allows 17.0
last game
28 pts/game
allowing 17
Rushing
158 yds/game
allows 117
Passing
207 yds/game
allows 230

QB Bear Bachmeier (208 pass yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INT) · RB LJ Martin (76 rush yds/game) · WR Legend Glasker (70 rec yds/game)

Colorado State

Points per game
35.0
allows 13.0
last game
35 pts/game
allowing 13
Rushing
154 yds/game
allows 152
Passing
242 yds/game
allows 132

QB Hauss Hejny (270 pass yds/game, 9 TD, 1 INT) · RB Jayden Brown (114 rush yds/game) · WR Terrence Smith Jr. (60 rec yds/game)