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West Virginia
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
Virginia
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET · neutral site
The number
- Vegas
- Virginia -10
- total 53.5
- Our line
- Virginia -10.3
- total 52.3
- Raw model
- Virginia -11.7
- West Virginia 17.8 · Virginia 29.5
no edge
Edge: spread 0.3 pts · total 1.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Virginia by 10.3; Vegas has Virginia by 10. That is a 0.3-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Virginia #15, West Virginia #77 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Virginia's pass game (150 passing yds/game, 107th in FBS) meets a West Virginia pass defense that ranks 121st of 137 in FBS (326 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Virginia 2-0 (100%), West Virginia 1-1.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
West Virginia line vs Virginia front
West Virginia CVirginia C
| Metric | West Virginia | Virginia allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.87 (#81) C | 2.96 (#63) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 14% (#36) B | 14% (#93) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 75% (#68) C | 100% (#91) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 7% (#89) C | 7% (#41) B |
| Yards per carry | 5.0 (#40) B | 3.6 (#27) B |
Virginia line vs West Virginia front
Virginia CWest Virginia B
| Metric | Virginia | West Virginia allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.31 (#30) B | 2.49 (#24) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 14% (#41) B | 27% (#16) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 75% (#65) C | 50% (#32) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 8% (#109) D | 8% (#36) B |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 (#53) C | 4.0 (#41) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
West Virginia passing vs Virginia secondary
West Virginia BVirginia A
| Metric | West Virginia | Virginia allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 8.4 (#35) B | 2.8 (#3) A |
| Completion % | 79% (#10) A | 56% (#25) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 20% (#32) B | 3% (#4) A |
| Passing yards per game | 126 (#117) F | 81 (#4) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 7% (#89) C | 7% (#41) B |
- DJ Epps: 74 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (36, 112)
- Jaden Bray: 15 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (29, 0)
Virginia passing vs West Virginia secondary
Virginia AWest Virginia C
| Metric | Virginia | West Virginia allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 12.5 (#3) A | 8.4 (#104) D |
| Completion % | 82% (#7) A | 56% (#26) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 25% (#10) A | 21% (#116) D |
| Passing yards per game | 150 (#107) D | 326 (#121) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 8% (#109) D | 8% (#36) B |
- Kameron Courtney: 24 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (12, 35)
- Tylyric Coleman: 23 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (31, 14)
West Virginia
- Points per game
- 31.0
- allows 24.0
- last game
- 31 pts/game
- allowing 24
- Rushing
- 291 yds/game
- allows 87
- Passing
- 126 yds/game
- allows 326
QB Michael Hawkins Jr. (144 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Cam Cook (97 rush yds/game) · WR DJ Epps (74 rec yds/game)
Virginia
- Points per game
- 34.0
- allows 8.0
- last game
- 34 pts/game
- allowing 8
- Rushing
- 268 yds/game
- allows 75
- Passing
- 150 yds/game
- allows 81
QB Beau Pribula (159 pass yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INT) · RB Xay Davis (60 rush yds/game) · WR Dashawn Martin (37 rec yds/game)