The Numbers Desk

Michigan State

2-0 · ATS 1-0-1 · O/U 1-1

Notre Dame

2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET

The number

no edge

Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total 0.0 pts · model weight 33%

1.Our number makes it Notre Dame by 29.4; Vegas has Notre Dame by 29.5. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
2.Power ratings: Notre Dame #9, Michigan State #71 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
3.Against the spread this season: Notre Dame 2-0 (100%), Michigan State 1-0-1.
4.Trust level: 33% on our numbers and 67% on the market, with 2 games of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Michigan State CNotre Dame B

Metric	Michigan State	Notre Dame allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run	3.28 (#33) B	2.18 (#8) A
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line	16% (#54) C	21% (#43) B
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground	56% (#91) D	75% (#71) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback	8% (#105) D	7% (#44) B
Yards per carry	5.0 (#43) B	2.5 (#4) A

Notre Dame BMichigan State A

Metric	Notre Dame	Michigan State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run	2.97 (#68) C	2.52 (#27) B
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line	6% (#3) A	28% (#15) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground	86% (#53) C	60% (#41) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback	0% (#11) A	12% (#10) A
Yards per carry	3.8 (#102) D	5.5 (#107) D

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Michigan State BNotre Dame C

Metric	Michigan State	Notre Dame allows
Yards per pass play	6.7 (#72) C	7.1 (#77) C
Completion %	73% (#17) A	63% (#77) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards	14% (#69) C	20% (#115) D
Passing yards per game	215 (#69) C	157 (#30) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home	8% (#105) D	7% (#44) B

Rodney Bullard Jr.: 58 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (90, 26)
Jayden Savoury: 50 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (36, 63)
Chrishon Mccray: 40 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games (69, 10)

Notre Dame BMichigan State B

Metric	Notre Dame	Michigan State allows
Yards per pass play	9.7 (#23) B	4.9 (#18) A
Completion %	71% (#26) B	59% (#45) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards	24% (#14) A	10% (#28) B
Passing yards per game	300 (#26) B	129 (#15) A
Sack ratepressure the front gets home	0% (#11) A	12% (#10) A

Jordan Faison: 68 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (81, 54)
Micah Gilbert: 41 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (34, 47)
Nolan James Jr.: 33 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (67, -1)

QB Alessio Milivojevic (209 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Camryn Edwards (125 rush yds/game) · WR Chrishon Mccray (40 rec yds/game)

QB C.J. Carr (246 pass yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INT) · RB Aneyas Williams (60 rush yds/game) · WR Nolan James Jr. (33 rec yds/game)

Micah Gilbert has 34 and 47 receiving yards over his last 2 games (41 a game on 2.5 catches).
Michigan State allows 129 passing yards a game, 15th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 28.5. Projection 29 (cleared it 2 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.
Alessio Milivojevic has thrown for 247 and 170 yards over his last 2 games (209 a game, 3 TD, 0 INT).
Notre Dame allows 157 passing yards a game, 30th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 149.5. Projection 157 (cleared it 2 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.
C.J. Carr has thrown for 239 and 253 yards over his last 2 games (246 a game, 6 TD, 0 INT).
Michigan State allows 129 passing yards a game, 15th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 249.5. Projection 228 (cleared it 1 of 2). This defense makes the under live.