The Numbers Desk
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Nevada
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
at
Middle Tennessee
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 0-2

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Nevada -3.5
total 50.5
Our line
Nevada -5.4
total 50.6
Raw model
Nevada -13.1
Nevada 31.9 · Middle Tennessee 18.8
no edge

Edge: spread 1.9 pts · total 0.1 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Nevada by 5.4; Vegas has Nevada by 3.5. That is a 1.9-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Middle Tennessee #113, Nevada #34 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Nevada's run game (323 rushing yds/game, best in FBS) meets a Middle Tennessee run defense that ranks 66th in FBS (148 allowed).
  4. 4.Against the spread this season: Middle Tennessee 2-0 (100%), Nevada 1-1.
  5. 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Nevada line vs Middle Tennessee front

Nevada BMiddle Tennessee C
MetricNevadaMiddle Tennessee allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.53 (#14) A3.04 (#72) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line19% (#75) C22% (#32) B
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#25) B67% (#60) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback0% (#10) A0% (#134) F
Yards per carry7.7 (#1) A4.1 (#50) C

Middle Tennessee line vs Nevada front

Middle Tennessee BNevada B
MetricMiddle TennesseeNevada allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.61 (#7) A3.19 (#88) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line5% (#2) A18% (#63) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#136) F25% (#18) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback2% (#30) B5% (#66) C
Yards per carry5.3 (#28) B4.7 (#80) C

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Nevada passing vs Middle Tennessee secondary

Nevada BMiddle Tennessee D
MetricNevadaMiddle Tennessee allows
Yards per pass play10.7 (#10) A7.9 (#93) D
Completion %56% (#99) D65% (#93) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards19% (#40) B13% (#50) C
Passing yards per game171 (#95) D181 (#39) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home0% (#10) A0% (#134) F
  • Donnie Cheers: 36 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (32, 39)
  • Damien Moun: 23 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games (15, 30)
  • Marshaun Brown: 22 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (-1, 44)

Middle Tennessee passing vs Nevada secondary

Middle Tennessee DNevada A
MetricMiddle TennesseeNevada allows
Yards per pass play6.0 (#89) C4.6 (#16) A
Completion %53% (#119) F59% (#46) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards2% (#133) F5% (#7) A
Passing yards per game290 (#31) B189 (#44) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home2% (#30) B5% (#66) C
  • Cam'Ron Lacy: 95 yds/game on 8.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (118, 72)
  • Neo Clifton: 29 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (37, 20)
  • Markus Allen: 22 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (9, 34)

Nevada

Points per game
49.0
allows 14.0
last game
49 pts/game
allowing 14
Rushing
323 yds/game
allows 185
Passing
171 yds/game
allows 189

QB AJ Bianco (58 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB Dominic Kelley (118 rush yds/game) · WR Donnie Cheers (36 rec yds/game)

Middle Tennessee

Points per game
26.0
allows 28.0
last game
26 pts/game
allowing 28
Rushing
107 yds/game
allows 148
Passing
290 yds/game
allows 181

QB Roman Gagliano (222 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INT) · RB Antonio Martin (68 rush yds/game) · WR Cam'Ron Lacy (95 rec yds/game)