The Numbers Desk

Florida

2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1

Auburn

2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET

The number

no edge

Edge: spread 1.0 pts · total 2.1 pts · model weight 20%

1.Our number makes it Florida by 3.5; Vegas has Florida by 2.5. That is a 1.0-point edge which is not enough to act on.
2.Power ratings: Auburn #49, Florida #7 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
3.Florida's pass game (339 passing yds/game, 12th in FBS) meets a Auburn pass defense that ranks 99th in FBS (259 allowed).
4.Auburn's run game (239 rushing yds/game, 12th in FBS) meets a Florida run defense that ranks 57th in FBS (134 allowed).
5.Against the spread this season: Auburn 1-1 (50%), Florida 1-1.
6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Florida BAuburn B

Metric	Florida	Auburn allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run	3.42 (#22) B	2.66 (#37) B
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line	10% (#13) A	18% (#68) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground	100% (#20) A	60% (#43) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback	4% (#50) C	4% (#74) C
Yards per carry	7.0 (#8) A	3.1 (#12) A

Auburn CFlorida D

Metric	Auburn	Florida allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run	3.42 (#21) A	3.28 (#99) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line	17% (#59) C	6% (#134) F
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground	83% (#56) C	100% (#114) D
Sack ratesacks per dropback	8% (#108) D	2% (#112) D
Yards per carry	5.7 (#20) A	3.9 (#40) B

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Florida AAuburn B

Metric	Florida	Auburn allows
Yards per pass play	12.6 (#2) A	5.7 (#36) B
Completion %	77% (#11) A	56% (#32) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards	30% (#3) A	11% (#34) B
Passing yards per game	339 (#12) A	259 (#99) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home	4% (#50) C	4% (#74) C

Vernell Brown III: 80 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (117, 43)
Dallas Wilson: 76 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (47, 104)
Tawaski Abrams: 48 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (63, 33)

Auburn CFlorida B

Metric	Auburn	Florida allows
Yards per pass play	6.2 (#87) C	5.1 (#23) B
Completion %	67% (#42) B	64% (#82) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards	14% (#73) C	6% (#9) A
Passing yards per game	226 (#64) C	277 (#109) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home	8% (#108) D	2% (#112) D

QB Aaron Philo (259 pass yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INT) · RB Jadan Baugh (148 rush yds/game) · WR Vernell Brown III (80 rec yds/game)

QB Byrum Brown (241 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INT) · RB Jeremiah Cobb (69 rush yds/game) · WR Jeremiah Cobb (10 rec yds/game)

Jadan Baugh has gone for 160 and 136 rushing yards over his last 2 games (148 a game, 10.6 a carry).
Auburn allows 97 rushing yards a game, 25th in FBS against the run.
FanDuel: 111.5. Projection 113 (cleared it 2 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.
Byrum Brown has thrown for 259 and 223 yards over his last 2 games (241 a game, 2 TD, 3 INT).
Florida allows 277 passing yards a game, 109th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 214.5. Projection 231 (cleared it 2 of 2). Form and matchup both say over.
Jeremiah Koger has 66 and 57 receiving yards over his last 2 games (62 a game on 3.5 catches).
Florida allows 277 passing yards a game, 109th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 42.5. Projection 51 (cleared it 2 of 2). Form and matchup both say over.