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Western Michigan
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
Rice
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Western Michigan -9.5
- total 43.5
- Our line
- Western Michigan -10.1
- total 43
- Raw model
- Western Michigan -12.4
- Western Michigan 26.6 · Rice 14.2
no edge
Edge: spread 0.6 pts · total 0.5 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Western Michigan by 10.1; Vegas has Western Michigan by 9.5. That is a 0.6-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Rice #133, Western Michigan #106 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Against the spread this season: Rice 1-1 (50%), Western Michigan 2-0.
- 4.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Western Michigan line vs Rice front
Western Michigan BRice D
| Metric | Western Michigan | Rice allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.05 (#58) C | 2.77 (#51) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 14% (#42) B | 13% (#108) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#19) A | 100% (#128) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 9% (#113) D | 0% (#130) F |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 (#112) D | 3.7 (#28) B |
Rice line vs Western Michigan front
Rice DWestern Michigan D
| Metric | Rice | Western Michigan allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.00 (#132) F | 3.24 (#91) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 21% (#94) D | 9% (#128) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 50% (#106) D | 67% (#55) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 8% (#104) D | 4% (#77) C |
| Yards per carry | 2.4 (#132) F | 4.1 (#52) C |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Western Michigan passing vs Rice secondary
Western Michigan CRice F
| Metric | Western Michigan | Rice allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 3.6 (#127) F | 10.9 (#131) F |
| Completion % | 71% (#21) A | 76% (#123) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 9% (#113) D | 30% (#136) F |
| Passing yards per game | 82 (#130) F | 360 (#130) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 9% (#113) D | 0% (#130) F |
- Aveion Chenault: 77 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games (53, 101)
- Baylin Brooks: 25 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (24, 25)
- Egypt Nelson: 19 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (-2, 39)
Rice passing vs Western Michigan secondary
Rice CWestern Michigan B
| Metric | Rice | Western Michigan allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 4.5 (#120) F | 7.2 (#80) C |
| Completion % | 67% (#46) B | 52% (#14) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 15% (#58) C | 17% (#86) C |
| Passing yards per game | 58 (#134) F | 173 (#37) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 8% (#104) D | 4% (#77) C |
Western Michigan
- Points per game
- 12.0
- allows 13.0
- last game
- 12 pts/game
- allowing 13
- Rushing
- 151 yds/game
- allows 95
- Passing
- 82 yds/game
- allows 173
QB Broc Lowry (151 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jalen Buckley (45 rush yds/game) · WR Harper Hughes (12 rec yds/game)
Rice
- Points per game
- 0.0
- allows 52.0
- last game
- 0 pts/game
- allowing 52
- Rushing
- 66 yds/game
- allows 118
- Passing
- 58 yds/game
- allows 360
RB Tyvonn Byars (64 rush yds/game) · WR Davis Lane (6 rec yds/game)