The Numbers Desk
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Ohio
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
at
South Alabama
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
South Alabama -5.5
total 51.5
Our line
South Alabama -5.4
total 51.5
Raw model
South Alabama -5.2
Ohio 23.1 · South Alabama 28.3
no edge

Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total 0.0 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it South Alabama by 5.4; Vegas has South Alabama by 5.5. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: South Alabama #85, Ohio #109 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.South Alabama's run game (190 rushing yds/game, 37th in FBS) meets a Ohio run defense that ranks 114th of 137 in FBS (214 allowed).
  4. 4.South Alabama's pass game (292 passing yds/game, 29th in FBS) meets a Ohio pass defense that ranks 100th in FBS (265 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: South Alabama 2-0 (100%), Ohio 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Ohio line vs South Alabama front

Ohio BSouth Alabama C
MetricOhioSouth Alabama allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.31 (#28) B1.98 (#6) A
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line11% (#17) A32% (#7) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#6) A100% (#130) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback7% (#98) D0% (#132) F
Yards per carry4.3 (#87) C7.8 (#136) F

South Alabama line vs Ohio front

South Alabama BOhio C
MetricSouth AlabamaOhio allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.30 (#32) B3.24 (#93) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line13% (#29) B19% (#58) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground75% (#72) C89% (#89) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback3% (#42) B3% (#88) C
Yards per carry4.9 (#48) B5.2 (#96) D

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Ohio passing vs South Alabama secondary

Ohio FSouth Alabama D
MetricOhioSouth Alabama allows
Yards per pass play5.1 (#110) D9.6 (#118) F
Completion %52% (#123) F64% (#79) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards7% (#120) F18% (#102) D
Passing yards per game143 (#113) D212 (#59) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home7% (#98) D0% (#132) F
  • Riley Neer: 71 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (104, 38)
  • Dom Dorwart: 23 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (29, 17)

South Alabama passing vs Ohio secondary

South Alabama BOhio D
MetricSouth AlabamaOhio allows
Yards per pass play8.8 (#31) B9.0 (#116) D
Completion %69% (#36) B65% (#87) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards27% (#6) A22% (#122) F
Passing yards per game292 (#29) B265 (#100) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home3% (#42) B3% (#88) C
  • Brendan Jenkins: 99 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (78, 119)
  • Jeremiah Jones-Thomas: 36 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (38, 33)
  • Micah Woods: 23 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (20, 25)

Ohio

Points per game
25.0
allows 38.0
last 2 games
25 pts/game
allowing 38
Rushing
156 yds/game
allows 214
Passing
143 yds/game
allows 265

QB Nick Poulos (90 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Duncan Brune (49 rush yds/game) · WR Duncan Brune (12 rec yds/game)

South Alabama

Points per game
24.0
allows 28.0
last game
24 pts/game
allowing 28
Rushing
190 yds/game
allows 218
Passing
292 yds/game
allows 212

QB Bishop Davenport (225 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB PJ Martin (71 rush yds/game) · WR PJ Martin (17 rec yds/game)