The Numbers Desk
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UConn
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
at
Southern Miss
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
UConn -3
total 54.5
Our line
UConn -4.1
total 54.7
Raw model
UConn -8.5
UConn 32 · Southern Miss 23.5
no edge

Edge: spread 1.1 pts · total 0.2 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it UConn by 4.1; Vegas has UConn by 3. That is a 1.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Southern Miss #130, UConn #95 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Southern Miss's pass game (185 passing yds/game, 86th in FBS) meets a UConn pass defense that ranks 126th of 137 in FBS (344 allowed).
  4. 4.UConn's run game (89 rushing yds/game, 120th of 137 in FBS) meets a Southern Miss run defense that ranks bottom five in FBS (136th of 137) (326 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Southern Miss 1-1 (50%), UConn 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

UConn line vs Southern Miss front

UConn DSouthern Miss D
MetricUConnSouthern Miss allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.33 (#120) F3.97 (#133) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line23% (#113) D13% (#109) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#37) B80% (#84) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback13% (#130) F3% (#96) D
Yards per carry3.4 (#118) F6.8 (#127) F

Southern Miss line vs UConn front

Southern Miss CUConn C
MetricSouthern MissUConn allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.81 (#89) C2.72 (#44) B
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line10% (#12) A20% (#52) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground50% (#109) D33% (#25) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback8% (#111) D2% (#106) D
Yards per carry3.2 (#125) F3.7 (#29) B

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

UConn passing vs Southern Miss secondary

UConn DSouthern Miss C
MetricUConnSouthern Miss allows
Yards per pass play6.3 (#84) C6.6 (#61) C
Completion %48% (#129) F61% (#52) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards13% (#84) C18% (#97) D
Passing yards per game151 (#105) D223 (#72) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home13% (#130) F3% (#96) D
  • Jediyah Willoughby: 38 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (40, 36)
  • Shamar Porter: 37 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (11, 62)
  • Alex Godavitarne: 34 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (58, 9)

Southern Miss passing vs UConn secondary

Southern Miss CUConn D
MetricSouthern MissUConn allows
Yards per pass play5.1 (#109) D8.2 (#99) D
Completion %67% (#47) B83% (#135) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards8% (#115) D17% (#88) C
Passing yards per game185 (#86) C344 (#126) F
Sack ratepressure the front gets home8% (#111) D2% (#106) D
  • Mario Sanders II: 76 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (94, 58)
  • A.J. Little: 33 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (38, 27)
  • MJ Johnson: 33 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (43, 22)

UConn

Points per game
14.0
allows 38.0
last game
14 pts/game
allowing 38
Rushing
89 yds/game
allows 131
Passing
151 yds/game
allows 344

QB Kalieb Osborne (211 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INT) · RB Trey Cornist (42 rush yds/game) · WR Kenji Christian (18 rec yds/game)

Southern Miss

Points per game
8.0
allows 43.0
last game
8 pts/game
allowing 43
Rushing
68 yds/game
allows 326
Passing
185 yds/game
allows 223

QB Ethan Hampton (163 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INT) · RB Steven Robinson (87 rush yds/game) · WR MJ Johnson (33 rec yds/game)