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Troy
2-0 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2
Missouri
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Missouri -26.5
- total 50.5
- Our line
- Missouri -26
- total 50.3
- Raw model
- Missouri -24.1
- Troy 12.7 · Missouri 36.7
no edge
Edge: spread 0.5 pts · total 0.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Missouri by 26.0; Vegas has Missouri by 26.5. That is a 0.5-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Missouri #14, Troy #59 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Missouri's pass game (292 passing yds/game, 28th in FBS) meets a Troy pass defense that ranks 119th of 137 in FBS (321 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Missouri 1-1 (50%), Troy 0-2.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Troy line vs Missouri front
Troy DMissouri C
| Metric | Troy | Missouri allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.93 (#75) C | 3.02 (#69) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 26% (#123) F | 11% (#119) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#128) F | 75% (#73) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 11% (#128) F | 9% (#22) B |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 (#31) B | 4.2 (#58) C |
Missouri line vs Troy front
Missouri BTroy A
| Metric | Missouri | Troy allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.72 (#98) D | 1.77 (#3) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 18% (#71) C | 40% (#2) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#29) B | 33% (#23) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#13) A | 8% (#33) B |
| Yards per carry | 4.6 (#62) C | 3.5 (#25) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Troy passing vs Missouri secondary
Troy CMissouri C
| Metric | Troy | Missouri allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.7 (#99) D | 5.5 (#28) B |
| Completion % | 50% (#126) F | 45% (#4) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 22% (#21) A | 21% (#117) F |
| Passing yards per game | 153 (#103) D | 186 (#41) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 11% (#128) F | 9% (#22) B |
- TK Keyes: 84 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (48, 119)
- Fabian Rogosch: 23 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (37, 8)
Missouri passing vs Troy secondary
Missouri BTroy C
| Metric | Missouri | Troy allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 9.7 (#22) B | 6.4 (#56) C |
| Completion % | 63% (#58) C | 65% (#92) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 23% (#19) A | 10% (#31) B |
| Passing yards per game | 292 (#28) B | 321 (#119) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#13) A | 8% (#33) B |
- Donovan Olugbode: 119 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (116, 121)
- Cayden Lee: 100 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (80, 120)
- Shaun Terry II: 38 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (55, 20)
Troy
- Points per game
- 24.0
- allows 21.0
- last game
- 24 pts/game
- allowing 21
- Rushing
- 199 yds/game
- allows 70
- Passing
- 153 yds/game
- allows 321
QB Will Crowder (183 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jaheim Merriweather (75 rush yds/game) · WR Noreel White (19 rec yds/game)
Missouri
- Points per game
- 38.0
- allows 21.0
- last game
- 38 pts/game
- allowing 21
- Rushing
- 176 yds/game
- allows 118
- Passing
- 292 yds/game
- allows 186
QB Austin Simmons (272 pass yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jamal Roberts (86 rush yds/game) · WR Xai'Shaun Edwards (7 rec yds/game)