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Georgia State
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
UCF
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- UCF -18.5
- total 50.5
- Our line
- UCF -19.6
- total 49.5
- Raw model
- UCF -24
- Georgia State 10.7 · UCF 34.8
no edge
Edge: spread 1.1 pts · total 1.0 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it UCF by 19.6; Vegas has UCF by 18.5. That is a 1.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: UCF #64, Georgia State #24 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Against the spread this season: UCF 2-0 (100%), Georgia State 2-0.
- 4.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Georgia State line vs UCF front
Georgia State BUCF B
| Metric | Georgia State | UCF allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.11 (#51) C | 2.19 (#9) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 20% (#84) C | 24% (#20) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 75% (#73) C | 50% (#38) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#17) A | 3% (#90) D |
| Yards per carry | 4.9 (#49) C | 2.7 (#5) A |
UCF line vs Georgia State front
UCF DGeorgia State C
| Metric | UCF | Georgia State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.21 (#125) F | 2.74 (#48) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 24% (#114) D | 35% (#5) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#133) F | 100% (#131) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 6% (#81) C | 3% (#99) D |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 (#101) D | 3.8 (#34) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Georgia State passing vs UCF secondary
Georgia State BUCF C
| Metric | Georgia State | UCF allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 11.0 (#8) A | 6.9 (#67) C |
| Completion % | 70% (#33) B | 62% (#65) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 22% (#26) B | 17% (#89) C |
| Passing yards per game | 253 (#48) B | 208 (#56) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#17) A | 3% (#90) D |
- Rodshaun Dorsey: 44 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (46, 42)
- Derrick Avery Jr.: 42 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (47, 37)
- DJ Riles: 30 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (28, 31)
UCF passing vs Georgia State secondary
UCF DGeorgia State C
| Metric | UCF | Georgia State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.3 (#106) D | 7.1 (#74) C |
| Completion % | 65% (#55) C | 63% (#69) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 9% (#111) D | 11% (#36) B |
| Passing yards per game | 176 (#92) D | 256 (#98) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 6% (#81) C | 3% (#99) D |
- Ric'Darious Farmer: 32 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (11, 52)
- Joshua Derry: 27 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (45, 9)
- Jonathan Bibbs: 26 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (44, 8)
Georgia State
- Points per game
- 31.0
- allows 17.0
- last game
- 31 pts/game
- allowing 17
- Rushing
- 219 yds/game
- allows 76
- Passing
- 253 yds/game
- allows 256
QB Cameran Brown (222 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Lanear McCrary Jr. (88 rush yds/game) · WR Jamari Miller (6 rec yds/game)
UCF
- Points per game
- 7.0
- allows 12.0
- last game
- 7 pts/game
- allowing 12
- Rushing
- 65 yds/game
- allows 109
- Passing
- 176 yds/game
- allows 208
QB Alonza Barnett (172 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Duke Watson (60 rush yds/game) · WR Ric'Darious Farmer (32 rec yds/game)