The Numbers Desk
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Georgia Southern
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 0-2
at
Jacksonville State
1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 2-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Jacksonville State -3
total 52.5
Our line
Jacksonville State -3.1
total 52.6
Raw model
Jacksonville State -3.3
Georgia Southern 24.8 · Jacksonville State 28.1
no edge

Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total 0.1 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Jacksonville State by 3.1; Vegas has Jacksonville State by 3. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Jacksonville State #94, Georgia Southern #116 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Against the spread this season: Jacksonville State 1-2 (33%), Georgia Southern 2-0.
  4. 4.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Georgia Southern line vs Jacksonville State front

Georgia Southern CJacksonville State D
MetricGeorgia SouthernJacksonville State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.30 (#123) F3.30 (#102) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line21% (#95) D10% (#125) F
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#43) B100% (#92) D
Sack ratesacks per dropback6% (#78) C9% (#28) B
Yards per carry2.8 (#129) F4.6 (#73) C

Jacksonville State line vs Georgia Southern front

Jacksonville State CGeorgia Southern B
MetricJacksonville StateGeorgia Southern allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.72 (#97) D2.51 (#26) B
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line22% (#96) D34% (#6) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground63% (#84) C0% (#16) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback6% (#75) C5% (#58) C
Yards per carry3.8 (#107) D4.5 (#68) C

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Georgia Southern passing vs Jacksonville State secondary

Georgia Southern FJacksonville State B
MetricGeorgia SouthernJacksonville State allows
Yards per pass play4.3 (#121) F5.2 (#24) B
Completion %56% (#100) D65% (#91) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards8% (#117) F8% (#21) A
Passing yards per game217 (#65) C122 (#12) A
Sack ratepressure the front gets home6% (#78) C9% (#28) B
  • Ashton Hollins: 102 yds/game on 6.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (106, 97)
  • Jeremiah Ware: 49 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (51, 47)
  • Josh Dallas: 41 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last 2 games (41, 41)

Jacksonville State passing vs Georgia Southern secondary

Jacksonville State CGeorgia Southern B
MetricJacksonville StateGeorgia Southern allows
Yards per pass play7.1 (#60) C5.1 (#22) B
Completion %65% (#52) C57% (#36) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards14% (#72) C8% (#19) A
Passing yards per game181 (#89) C188 (#43) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home6% (#75) C5% (#58) C
  • Jamill Williams: 92 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 4 TD (144, 39)
  • Deondre Johnson: 41 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (22, 60)
  • Ronnel Johnson: 29 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (33, 25)

Georgia Southern

Points per game
7.0
allows 22.0
last game
7 pts/game
allowing 22
Rushing
39 yds/game
allows 157
Passing
217 yds/game
allows 188

QB Max Johnson (263 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jamarian Samuel (24 rush yds/game) · WR Josh Dallas (41 rec yds/game)

Jacksonville State

Points per game
17.0
allows 31.0
last 2 games
17 pts/game
allowing 31
Rushing
130 yds/game
allows 194
Passing
181 yds/game
allows 122

QB Caden Creel (226 pass yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INT) · RB Jalen Likely (40 rush yds/game) · WR Jamill Williams (63 rec yds/game)