← All matchups
at
Marshall
1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2
Missouri State
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Marshall -3.5
- total 51.5
- Our line
- Marshall -3.8
- total 52.8
- Raw model
- Marshall -4.9
- Marshall 31.5 · Missouri State 26.6
no edge
Edge: spread 0.3 pts · total 1.3 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Marshall by 3.8; Vegas has Marshall by 3.5. That is a 0.3-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Missouri State #128, Marshall #88 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Against the spread this season: Missouri State 1-1 (50%), Marshall 0-2.
- 4.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Marshall line vs Missouri State front
Marshall DMissouri State D
| Metric | Marshall | Missouri State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.49 (#111) D | 4.04 (#136) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 26% (#122) F | 9% (#127) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 50% (#96) D | 100% (#110) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 4% (#52) C | 5% (#61) C |
| Yards per carry | 3.3 (#121) F | 5.6 (#114) D |
Missouri State line vs Marshall front
Missouri State CMarshall D
| Metric | Missouri State | Marshall allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.04 (#131) F | 3.28 (#98) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 24% (#116) D | 11% (#118) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 50% (#99) D | 100% (#106) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#8) A | 3% (#101) D |
| Yards per carry | 2.3 (#133) F | 4.3 (#61) C |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Marshall passing vs Missouri State secondary
Marshall DMissouri State B
| Metric | Marshall | Missouri State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.7 (#98) D | 6.1 (#48) B |
| Completion % | 67% (#44) B | 65% (#86) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 8% (#118) F | 8% (#16) A |
| Passing yards per game | 151 (#106) D | 237 (#83) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 4% (#52) C | 5% (#61) C |
- Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw: 48 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (17, 79)
- Toby Payne: 31 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games (55, 6)
- Owen Sweeney: 24 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (14, 34)
Missouri State passing vs Marshall secondary
Missouri State FMarshall C
| Metric | Missouri State | Marshall allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 1.8 (#136) F | 8.7 (#108) D |
| Completion % | 47% (#131) F | 61% (#54) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 0% (#136) F | 14% (#63) C |
| Passing yards per game | 30 (#136) F | 331 (#122) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#8) A | 3% (#101) D |
- Dillon Hipp: 34 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (15, 52)
- Jmariyae Robinson: 27 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games (14, 40)
Marshall
- Points per game
- 14.0
- allows 35.5
- last 2 games
- 14 pts/game
- allowing 36
- Rushing
- 95 yds/game
- allows 138
- Passing
- 151 yds/game
- allows 331
QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (97 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Joshon Barbie (25 rush yds/game) · WR Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw (48 rec yds/game)
Missouri State
- Points per game
- 0.0
- allows 50.0
- last game
- 0 pts/game
- allowing 50
- Rushing
- 48 yds/game
- allows 252
- Passing
- 30 yds/game
- allows 237
QB Skyler Locklear (144 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jambres Dubar (49 rush yds/game) · WR Isaiah Myers (78 rec yds/game)