The Numbers Desk
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East Carolina
0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1
at
Old Dominion
1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Old Dominion -3
total 49.5
Our line
Old Dominion -3
total 49.5
Raw model
Old Dominion -2.8
East Carolina 23.5 · Old Dominion 26.2
no edge

Edge: spread 0.0 pts · total 0.0 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Old Dominion by 3.0; Vegas has Old Dominion by 3. That is a 0.0-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Old Dominion #63, East Carolina #72 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.East Carolina's pass game (199 passing yds/game, 78th in FBS) meets a Old Dominion pass defense that ranks 114th of 137 in FBS (296 allowed).
  4. 4.Old Dominion's run game (150 rushing yds/game, 65th in FBS) meets a East Carolina run defense that ranks 98th in FBS (180 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Old Dominion 0-2 (0%), East Carolina 0-2.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

East Carolina line vs Old Dominion front

East Carolina DOld Dominion B
MetricEast CarolinaOld Dominion allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.42 (#115) D2.16 (#7) A
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line23% (#111) D32% (#9) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground50% (#94) D60% (#45) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback7% (#88) C6% (#49) C
Yards per carry4.3 (#88) C3.3 (#17) A

Old Dominion line vs East Carolina front

Old Dominion FEast Carolina C
MetricOld DominionEast Carolina allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.30 (#122) F2.73 (#45) B
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line36% (#135) F23% (#28) B
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground50% (#103) D100% (#99) D
Sack ratesacks per dropback17% (#134) F5% (#67) C
Yards per carry6.8 (#10) A4.1 (#53) C

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

East Carolina passing vs Old Dominion secondary

East Carolina DOld Dominion D
MetricEast CarolinaOld Dominion allows
Yards per pass play6.6 (#74) C6.3 (#52) C
Completion %57% (#96) D73% (#117) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards10% (#106) D19% (#108) D
Passing yards per game199 (#78) C296 (#114) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home7% (#88) C6% (#49) C
  • Jeremiah Melvin: 77 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (60, 94)
  • Tyler Johnson: 43 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (68, 18)
  • Nathaniel Joseph: 17 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (23, 11)

Old Dominion passing vs East Carolina secondary

Old Dominion CEast Carolina D
MetricOld DominionEast Carolina allows
Yards per pass play5.3 (#108) D8.1 (#97) D
Completion %63% (#63) C64% (#83) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards13% (#80) C21% (#120) F
Passing yards per game121 (#118) F251 (#94) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home17% (#134) F5% (#67) C
  • Josh Rodriguez: 55 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (21, 89)
  • JJ Harrell: 41 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (45, 36)
  • TJ Johnson: 24 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (25, 23)

East Carolina

Points per game
17.0
allows 37.5
last 2 games
17 pts/game
allowing 38
Rushing
111 yds/game
allows 180
Passing
199 yds/game
allows 251

QB Mitch Griffis (184 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INT) · RB Ashton Gray (58 rush yds/game) · WR Michael Allen (5 rec yds/game)

Old Dominion

Points per game
21.0
allows 44.0
last game
21 pts/game
allowing 44
Rushing
150 yds/game
allows 125
Passing
121 yds/game
allows 296

QB Quinn Henicle (162 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INT) · RB Devin Roche (48 rush yds/game)