← All matchups
at
Florida International
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
Florida Atlantic
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Florida Atlantic -7
- total 62.5
- Our line
- Florida Atlantic -4.8
- total 62.1
- Raw model
- Florida Atlantic -0.4
- Florida International 30.5 · Florida Atlantic 30.9
no edge
Edge: spread 2.2 pts · total 0.4 pts · model weight 33%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Florida Atlantic by 4.8; Vegas has Florida Atlantic by 7. That is a 2.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Florida Atlantic #91, Florida International #38 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Florida International's pass game (356 passing yds/game, 5th in FBS) meets a Florida Atlantic pass defense that ranks 88th in FBS (241 allowed).
- 4.Florida International's run game (115 rushing yds/game, 100th in FBS) meets a Florida Atlantic run defense that ranks 127th of 137 in FBS (258 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: Florida Atlantic 1-1 (50%), Florida International 2-0.
- 6.Trust level: 33% on our numbers and 67% on the market, with 2 games of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Florida International line vs Florida Atlantic front
Florida International CFlorida Atlantic C
| Metric | Florida International | Florida Atlantic allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.73 (#95) D | 3.19 (#89) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 21% (#90) D | 15% (#89) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 60% (#87) C | 100% (#115) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 1% (#22) B | 6% (#54) C |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 (#109) D | 7.1 (#130) F |
Florida Atlantic line vs Florida International front
Florida Atlantic BFlorida International B
| Metric | Florida Atlantic | Florida International allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.86 (#85) C | 2.27 (#12) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 15% (#46) B | 23% (#24) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#21) A | 0% (#7) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 4% (#61) C | 3% (#92) D |
| Yards per carry | 3.3 (#120) F | 3.1 (#10) A |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Florida International passing vs Florida Atlantic secondary
Florida International BFlorida Atlantic D
| Metric | Florida International | Florida Atlantic allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 8.0 (#42) B | 9.6 (#119) F |
| Completion % | 60% (#81) C | 62% (#62) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 19% (#37) B | 20% (#111) D |
| Passing yards per game | 356 (#5) A | 241 (#88) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 1% (#22) B | 6% (#54) C |
- Maguire Anderson: 93 yds/game on 6.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (87, 99)
- JoJo Stone: 71 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (43, 98)
- Eric Nelson: 52 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (43, 61)
Florida Atlantic passing vs Florida International secondary
Florida Atlantic CFlorida International B
| Metric | Florida Atlantic | Florida International allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.2 (#54) C | 5.8 (#38) B |
| Completion % | 71% (#28) B | 56% (#29) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 10% (#105) D | 9% (#27) B |
| Passing yards per game | 322 (#18) A | 184 (#40) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 4% (#61) C | 3% (#92) D |
- Easton Messer: 126 yds/game on 7.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (73, 179)
- Kelby Valsin: 104 yds/game on 9.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (92, 115)
- Dom Henry: 51 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (38, 63)
Florida International
- Points per game
- 21.0
- allows 19.5
- last 2 games
- 21 pts/game
- allowing 20
- Rushing
- 115 yds/game
- allows 92
- Passing
- 356 yds/game
- allows 184
QB J.J. Kohl (334 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INT) · RB Anthony Carrie (40 rush yds/game) · WR Maguire Anderson (93 rec yds/game)
Florida Atlantic
- Points per game
- 29.5
- allows 48.0
- last 2 games
- 30 pts/game
- allowing 48
- Rushing
- 122 yds/game
- allows 258
- Passing
- 322 yds/game
- allows 241
QB Caden Veltkamp (331 pass yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INT) · RB Ethan Ervin (59 rush yds/game) · WR Easton Messer (126 rec yds/game)