The Numbers Desk
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Charlotte
0-2 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
at
App State
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
App State -17.5
total 51.5
Our line
App State -17.8
total 52.1
Raw model
App State -19.1
Charlotte 17.6 · App State 36.8
no edge

Edge: spread 0.3 pts · total 0.6 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it App State by 17.8; Vegas has App State by 17.5. That is a 0.3-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: App State #108, Charlotte #123 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.App State's pass game (258 passing yds/game, 43rd in FBS) meets a Charlotte pass defense that ranks 111th of 137 in FBS (287 allowed).
  4. 4.Charlotte's run game (144 rushing yds/game, 68th in FBS) meets a App State run defense that ranks 111th of 137 in FBS (207 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: App State 2-0 (100%), Charlotte 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Charlotte line vs App State front

Charlotte DApp State D
MetricCharlotteApp State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.44 (#113) D3.73 (#130) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line34% (#133) F15% (#87) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground50% (#110) D100% (#124) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback3% (#46) B3% (#102) D
Yards per carry4.5 (#71) C6.3 (#121) F

App State line vs Charlotte front

App State FCharlotte C
MetricApp StateCharlotte allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.14 (#130) F3.40 (#114) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line30% (#126) F30% (#11) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#131) F100% (#134) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback7% (#91) D3% (#98) D
Yards per carry3.3 (#123) F5.8 (#117) F

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Charlotte passing vs App State secondary

Charlotte CApp State B
MetricCharlotteApp State allows
Yards per pass play7.4 (#50) C5.9 (#41) B
Completion %71% (#23) B57% (#33) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards17% (#49) C5% (#8) A
Passing yards per game216 (#66) C223 (#71) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home3% (#46) B3% (#102) D
  • Jaylen Hampton: 71 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (117, 25)
  • Derrick Eley: 59 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (62, 56)
  • Jaden Barnes: 55 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games (93, 17)

App State passing vs Charlotte secondary

App State BCharlotte D
MetricApp StateCharlotte allows
Yards per pass play8.6 (#33) B8.2 (#100) D
Completion %71% (#22) B79% (#129) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards20% (#33) B14% (#61) C
Passing yards per game258 (#43) B287 (#111) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home7% (#91) D3% (#98) D
  • Sam Pickett III: 81 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (76, 86)
  • Darrin Fugitt: 57 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (47, 66)
  • Nate Branch: 50 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (55, 45)

Charlotte

Points per game
9.0
allows 41.0
last game
9 pts/game
allowing 41
Rushing
144 yds/game
allows 133
Passing
216 yds/game
allows 287

QB Cole Gonzales (225 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INT) · RB Khamani Alexander (75 rush yds/game) · WR Chance Williams (17 rec yds/game)

App State

Points per game
27.0
allows 24.0
last game
27 pts/game
allowing 24
Rushing
132 yds/game
allows 207
Passing
258 yds/game
allows 223

QB Malachi Singleton (279 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jaquari Lewis (71 rush yds/game) · WR Nate Branch (50 rec yds/game)