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Mississippi State
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
South Carolina
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 4:15 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- South Carolina -4
- total 58.5
- Our line
- South Carolina -5.2
- total 58.3
- Raw model
- South Carolina -9.9
- Mississippi State 23.7 · South Carolina 33.7
no edge
Edge: spread 1.2 pts · total 0.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it South Carolina by 5.2; Vegas has South Carolina by 4. That is a 1.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: South Carolina #3, Mississippi State #5 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Mississippi State's run game (301 rushing yds/game, 2nd in FBS) meets a South Carolina run defense that ranks 31st in FBS (106 allowed).
- 4.South Carolina's pass game (347 passing yds/game, 7th in FBS) meets a Mississippi State pass defense that ranks 36th in FBS (171 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: South Carolina 1-1 (50%), Mississippi State 2-0.
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Mississippi State line vs South Carolina front
Mississippi State BSouth Carolina C
| Metric | Mississippi State | South Carolina allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.84 (#4) A | 2.73 (#46) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 16% (#53) C | 21% (#44) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 80% (#62) C | 100% (#105) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#9) A | 4% (#76) C |
| Yards per carry | 7.3 (#5) A | 4.4 (#66) C |
South Carolina line vs Mississippi State front
South Carolina AMississippi State B
| Metric | South Carolina | Mississippi State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 4.01 (#2) A | 2.58 (#31) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 8% (#9) A | 16% (#83) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#10) A | 43% (#27) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 3% (#41) B | 5% (#64) C |
| Yards per carry | 7.5 (#3) A | 3.4 (#19) A |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Mississippi State passing vs South Carolina secondary
Mississippi State BSouth Carolina B
| Metric | Mississippi State | South Carolina allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 10.1 (#17) A | 3.0 (#4) A |
| Completion % | 67% (#41) B | 61% (#55) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 22% (#25) B | 4% (#6) A |
| Passing yards per game | 322 (#17) A | 73 (#3) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#9) A | 4% (#76) C |
- Anthony Evans III: 120 yds/game on 7.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (118, 121)
- Marquis Johnson: 54 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (99, 8)
- Zion Ragins: 49 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (45, 53)
South Carolina passing vs Mississippi State secondary
South Carolina AMississippi State B
| Metric | South Carolina | Mississippi State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 10.5 (#12) A | 4.3 (#11) A |
| Completion % | 81% (#8) A | 62% (#64) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 24% (#13) A | 6% (#11) A |
| Passing yards per game | 347 (#7) A | 171 (#36) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 3% (#41) B | 5% (#64) C |
- Nyck Harbor: 53 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (70, 35)
- Mazeo Bennett: 21 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (34, 8)
- Brady Hunt: 16 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (10, 22)
Mississippi State
- Points per game
- 50.0
- allows 13.0
- last 2 games
- 50 pts/game
- allowing 13
- Rushing
- 301 yds/game
- allows 87
- Passing
- 322 yds/game
- allows 171
QB Kamario Taylor (291 pass yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INT) · RB Fluff Bothwell (83 rush yds/game) · WR Anthony Evans III (120 rec yds/game)
South Carolina
- Points per game
- 57.0
- allows 0.0
- last game
- 57 pts/game
- allowing 0
- Rushing
- 279 yds/game
- allows 106
- Passing
- 347 yds/game
- allows 73
QB Lanorris Sellers (183 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INT) · RB Matthew Fuller (100 rush yds/game)