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Louisiana Tech
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 2-0
Baylor
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 0-2
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Baylor -19.5
- total 53.5
- Our line
- Baylor -19.5
- total 52.4
- Raw model
- Baylor -19.5
- Louisiana Tech 14.2 · Baylor 33.6
no edge
Edge: spread 0.0 pts · total 1.1 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Baylor by 19.5; Vegas has Baylor by 19.5. That is a 0.0-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Baylor #19, Louisiana Tech #127 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Baylor's pass game (332 passing yds/game, 14th in FBS) meets a Louisiana Tech pass defense that ranks bottom five in FBS (136th of 137) (466 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Baylor 2-0 (100%), Louisiana Tech 2-0.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Louisiana Tech line vs Baylor front
Louisiana Tech FBaylor B
| Metric | Louisiana Tech | Baylor allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 1.04 (#137) F | 2.67 (#39) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 30% (#127) F | 23% (#29) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#137) F | 100% (#107) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 24% (#137) F | 13% (#6) A |
| Yards per carry | 1.4 (#137) F | 4.3 (#63) C |
Baylor line vs Louisiana Tech front
Baylor CLouisiana Tech A
| Metric | Baylor | Louisiana Tech allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.59 (#105) D | 1.88 (#5) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 22% (#101) D | 26% (#18) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 67% (#80) C | 75% (#76) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 2% (#27) B | 11% (#14) A |
| Yards per carry | 3.0 (#127) F | 3.9 (#38) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Louisiana Tech passing vs Baylor secondary
Louisiana Tech FBaylor C
| Metric | Louisiana Tech | Baylor allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 4.1 (#123) F | 5.8 (#39) B |
| Completion % | 55% (#112) D | 74% (#119) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 7% (#122) F | 10% (#32) B |
| Passing yards per game | 120 (#120) F | 228 (#77) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 24% (#137) F | 13% (#6) A |
- Jalen Mickens: 117 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (133, 101)
- Eli Finley: 34 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (52, 15)
Baylor passing vs Louisiana Tech secondary
Baylor DLouisiana Tech F
| Metric | Baylor | Louisiana Tech allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.0 (#90) D | 10.4 (#124) F |
| Completion % | 50% (#125) F | 65% (#90) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 13% (#82) C | 24% (#131) F |
| Passing yards per game | 332 (#14) A | 466 (#136) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 2% (#27) B | 11% (#14) A |
- Gavin Freeman: 129 yds/game on 11.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (154, 104)
- Louis Brown: 42 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (62, 21)
- Dawson Pendergrass: 15 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (11, 19)
Louisiana Tech
- Points per game
- 14.0
- allows 45.0
- last game
- 14 pts/game
- allowing 45
- Rushing
- 32 yds/game
- allows 153
- Passing
- 120 yds/game
- allows 466
QB Blake Baker (180 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INT) · RB Andrew Burnette (25 rush yds/game) · WR Jalen Mickens (117 rec yds/game)
Baylor
- Points per game
- 16.0
- allows 17.0
- last game
- 16 pts/game
- allowing 17
- Rushing
- 125 yds/game
- allows 151
- Passing
- 332 yds/game
- allows 228
QB D.J. Lagway (167 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Dawson Pendergrass (79 rush yds/game) · WR Jayden McGowan (34 rec yds/game)