The Numbers Desk
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Western Kentucky
0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 2-0
at
Indiana
2-0 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Indiana -44.5
total 60.5
Our line
Indiana -43.9
total 60.7
Raw model
Indiana -41.7
Western Kentucky 9.9 · Indiana 51.7
no edge

Edge: spread 0.6 pts · total 0.2 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Indiana by 43.9; Vegas has Indiana by 44.5. That is a 0.6-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Indiana #12, Western Kentucky #136 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Indiana's run game (134 rushing yds/game, 76th in FBS) meets a Western Kentucky run defense that ranks 130th of 137 in FBS (269 allowed).
  4. 4.Western Kentucky's run game (159 rushing yds/game, 52nd in FBS) meets a Indiana run defense that ranks 84th in FBS (160 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Indiana 0-2 (0%), Western Kentucky 0-2.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Western Kentucky line vs Indiana front

Western Kentucky CIndiana C
MetricWestern KentuckyIndiana allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.02 (#63) C2.98 (#64) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line21% (#89) C14% (#101) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground20% (#121) F0% (#4) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback5% (#67) C3% (#89) C
Yards per carry4.4 (#78) C4.3 (#64) C

Indiana line vs Western Kentucky front

Indiana BWestern Kentucky D
MetricIndianaWestern Kentucky allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.50 (#108) D3.56 (#122) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line13% (#33) B18% (#66) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground67% (#78) C100% (#119) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback0% (#3) A0% (#122) F
Yards per carry4.5 (#73) C7.4 (#132) F

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Western Kentucky passing vs Indiana secondary

Western Kentucky FIndiana D
MetricWestern KentuckyIndiana allows
Yards per pass play4.1 (#124) F7.9 (#95) D
Completion %54% (#117) F79% (#128) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards4% (#130) F17% (#85) C
Passing yards per game166 (#98) D238 (#84) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home5% (#67) C3% (#89) C
  • Cameron Flowers: 37 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (60, 14)
  • Jonathan Stafford Jr.: 33 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (48, 17)
  • Lofton Howard: 9 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (3, 14)

Indiana passing vs Western Kentucky secondary

Indiana AWestern Kentucky D
MetricIndianaWestern Kentucky allows
Yards per pass play15.4 (#1) A10.5 (#126) F
Completion %87% (#2) A61% (#56) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards33% (#2) A20% (#109) D
Passing yards per game231 (#59) C215 (#61) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home0% (#3) A0% (#122) F
  • Charlie Becker: 73 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 5 TD (64, 81)
  • Nick Marsh: 44 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (17, 71)

Western Kentucky

Points per game
17.0
allows 59.5
last 2 games
17 pts/game
allowing 60
Rushing
159 yds/game
allows 269
Passing
166 yds/game
allows 215

QB Rodney Tisdale Jr. (117 pass yds/game, 0 TD, 1 INT) · RB Ajay Allen (61 rush yds/game) · WR Jonathan Stafford Jr. (33 rec yds/game)

Indiana

Points per game
52.0
allows 16.0
last game
52 pts/game
allowing 16
Rushing
134 yds/game
allows 160
Passing
231 yds/game
allows 238

QB Josh Hoover (188 pass yds/game, 8 TD, 0 INT) · RB Turbo Richard (83 rush yds/game) · WR Turbo Richard (22 rec yds/game)