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Stanford
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
Duke
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Duke -9.5
- total 50.5
- Our line
- Duke -11.1
- total 51.5
- Raw model
- Duke -14.4
- Stanford 19.6 · Duke 34
no edge
Edge: spread 1.6 pts · total 1.0 pts · model weight 33%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Duke by 11.1; Vegas has Duke by 9.5. That is a 1.6-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Duke #35, Stanford #81 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Stanford's pass game (263 passing yds/game, 40th in FBS) meets a Duke pass defense that ranks 69th in FBS (222 allowed).
- 4.Duke's pass game (166 passing yds/game, 97th in FBS) meets a Stanford pass defense that ranks 125th of 137 in FBS (342 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: Duke 2-0 (100%), Stanford 1-1.
- 6.Trust level: 33% on our numbers and 67% on the market, with 2 games of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Stanford line vs Duke front
Stanford CDuke D
| Metric | Stanford | Duke allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.89 (#79) C | 2.85 (#56) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 17% (#60) C | 9% (#126) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 80% (#59) C | 67% (#53) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 1% (#23) B | 3% (#95) D |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 (#81) C | 3.3 (#18) A |
Duke line vs Stanford front
Duke BStanford C
| Metric | Duke | Stanford allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.09 (#54) C | 2.76 (#50) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 20% (#82) C | 16% (#82) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 60% (#86) C | 100% (#93) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#5) A | 2% (#108) D |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 (#35) B | 3.5 (#26) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Stanford passing vs Duke secondary
Stanford CDuke C
| Metric | Stanford | Duke allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.8 (#68) C | 6.6 (#63) C |
| Completion % | 58% (#93) D | 62% (#59) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 16% (#56) C | 12% (#42) B |
| Passing yards per game | 263 (#40) B | 222 (#69) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 1% (#23) B | 3% (#95) D |
Duke passing vs Stanford secondary
Duke CStanford D
| Metric | Duke | Stanford allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.9 (#65) C | 7.8 (#90) D |
| Completion % | 54% (#113) D | 70% (#109) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 12% (#86) C | 17% (#90) D |
| Passing yards per game | 166 (#97) D | 342 (#125) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#5) A | 2% (#108) D |
- Jonah Burton: 57 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (38, 76)
- Jeremiah Hasley: 45 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (36, 53)
- Nate Sheppard: 30 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (19, 41)
Stanford
- Points per game
- 21.5
- allows 36.0
- last 2 games
- 22 pts/game
- allowing 36
- Rushing
- 128 yds/game
- allows 90
- Passing
- 263 yds/game
- allows 342
QB Davis Warren (262 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Micah Ford (63 rush yds/game) · WR Micah Ford (5 rec yds/game)
Duke
- Points per game
- 24.0
- allows 15.0
- last 2 games
- 24 pts/game
- allowing 15
- Rushing
- 209 yds/game
- allows 89
- Passing
- 166 yds/game
- allows 222
QB Walker Eget (169 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Nate Sheppard (187 rush yds/game) · WR Nate Sheppard (30 rec yds/game)