The Numbers Desk
← All matchups
Ball State
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
at
Liberty
1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 4:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Liberty -14.5
total 49.5
Our line
Liberty -15.4
total 49.9
Raw model
Liberty -18.8
Ball State 16.4 · Liberty 35.2
no edge

Edge: spread 0.9 pts · total 0.4 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Liberty by 15.4; Vegas has Liberty by 14.5. That is a 0.9-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Liberty #102, Ball State #134 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Liberty's pass game (208 passing yds/game, 73rd in FBS) meets a Ball State pass defense that ranks bottom five in FBS (135th of 137) (422 allowed).
  4. 4.Liberty's run game (105 rushing yds/game, 110th of 137 in FBS) meets a Ball State run defense that ranks 124th of 137 in FBS (249 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Liberty 0-2 (0%), Ball State 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Ball State line vs Liberty front

Ball State DLiberty C
MetricBall StateLiberty allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run1.20 (#135) F3.08 (#74) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line32% (#130) F23% (#31) B
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#125) F100% (#101) D
Sack ratesacks per dropback3% (#37) B0% (#119) F
Yards per carry2.1 (#134) F5.6 (#113) D

Liberty line vs Ball State front

Liberty CBall State C
MetricLibertyBall State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.65 (#101) D3.32 (#106) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line11% (#20) A18% (#62) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground80% (#61) C100% (#102) D
Sack ratesacks per dropback7% (#94) D5% (#60) C
Yards per carry3.0 (#128) F7.5 (#134) F

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Ball State passing vs Liberty secondary

Ball State FLiberty C
MetricBall StateLiberty allows
Yards per pass play3.2 (#131) F7.4 (#81) C
Completion %54% (#116) D63% (#72) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards3% (#132) F16% (#76) C
Passing yards per game120 (#119) F140 (#20) A
Sack ratepressure the front gets home3% (#37) B0% (#119) F
  • Jamarion McDougle: 34 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (16, 52)
  • Donovan Hamilton: 26 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (11, 40)
  • Isaiah Thacker: 21 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (11, 31)

Liberty passing vs Ball State secondary

Liberty BBall State F
MetricLibertyBall State allows
Yards per pass play7.2 (#55) C10.8 (#130) F
Completion %63% (#65) C84% (#136) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards24% (#15) A28% (#135) F
Passing yards per game208 (#73) C422 (#135) F
Sack ratepressure the front gets home7% (#94) D5% (#60) C
  • Makai Jackson: 71 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (73, 69)
  • Bryce Randolph: 28 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (32, 23)
  • Zeke Wimbush: 26 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (15, 36)

Ball State

Points per game
3.0
allows 56.0
last game
3 pts/game
allowing 56
Rushing
47 yds/game
allows 249
Passing
120 yds/game
allows 422

QB Keldric Luster (173 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INT) · RB TJ Horton (65 rush yds/game) · WR Isaiah Thacker (21 rec yds/game)

Liberty

Points per game
13.0
allows 20.0
last game
13 pts/game
allowing 20
Rushing
105 yds/game
allows 173
Passing
208 yds/game
allows 140

QB Deshawn Purdie (176 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INT) · RB Kam Davis (59 rush yds/game) · WR Bryce Randolph (28 rec yds/game)