College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Louisville -1.5
- total 59.5
- Our line
- Louisville -1.3
- total 58.8
- Raw model
- Louisville -0.7
- SMU 27.6 · Louisville 28.4
Edge: spread 0.2 pts · total 0.7 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Louisville by 1.3; Vegas has Louisville by 1.5. That is a 0.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Louisville #52, SMU #33 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.SMU's pass game (435 passing yds/game, best in FBS) meets a Louisville pass defense that ranks 123rd of 137 in FBS (331 allowed).
- 4.Louisville's run game (210 rushing yds/game, 26th in FBS) meets a SMU run defense that ranks 119th of 137 in FBS (222 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: Louisville 2-0 (100%), SMU 1-0-1.
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
SMU line vs Louisville front
| Metric | SMU | Louisville allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.28 (#34) B | 3.51 (#119) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 13% (#31) B | 10% (#122) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#28) B | 80% (#80) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#12) A | 0% (#125) F |
| Yards per carry | 5.0 (#42) B | 4.3 (#62) C |
Louisville line vs SMU front
| Metric | Louisville | SMU allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.27 (#36) B | 3.18 (#86) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 23% (#108) D | 12% (#111) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#27) B | 0% (#10) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 9% (#120) F | 12% (#11) A |
| Yards per carry | 6.0 (#13) A | 5.4 (#105) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
SMU passing vs Louisville secondary
| Metric | SMU | Louisville allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 12.1 (#6) A | 9.2 (#117) F |
| Completion % | 72% (#20) A | 56% (#27) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 22% (#22) B | 17% (#87) C |
| Passing yards per game | 435 (#1) A | 331 (#123) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#12) A | 0% (#125) F |
- Yannick Smith: 76 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (107, 44)
- Jalen Cooper: 57 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (71, 42)
- Yamir Knight: 56 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games (49, 62)
Louisville passing vs SMU secondary
| Metric | Louisville | SMU allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 9.1 (#27) B | 4.0 (#7) A |
| Completion % | 62% (#73) C | 52% (#15) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 22% (#24) B | 12% (#38) B |
| Passing yards per game | 291 (#30) B | 103 (#6) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 9% (#120) F | 12% (#11) A |
- Tre Richardson: 91 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (83, 98)
- Lawayne McCoy: 82 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (62, 102)
- Jaleel Skinner: 69 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (55, 82)
SMU
- Points per game
- 27.0
- allows 24.0
- last game
- 27 pts/game
- allowing 24
- Rushing
- 155 yds/game
- allows 222
- Passing
- 435 yds/game
- allows 103
QB Kevin Jennings (384 pass yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INT) · RB Kendrick Raphael (39 rush yds/game) · WR Jalen Hale (61 rec yds/game)
Louisville
- Points per game
- 38.0
- allows 41.0
- last game
- 38 pts/game
- allowing 41
- Rushing
- 210 yds/game
- allows 168
- Passing
- 291 yds/game
- allows 331
QB Lincoln Kienholz (320 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Isaac Brown (49 rush yds/game) · WR Tre Richardson (91 rec yds/game)
Props to watch
All props →Kevin Jennings has thrown for 430 and 337 yards over his last 2 games (384 a game, 8 TD, 2 INT).
Louisville allows 331 passing yards a game, 123rd of 137 in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 282.5. Projection 342 (cleared it 2 of 2). Form and matchup both say over.
Tre Richardson has 83 and 98 receiving yards over his last 2 games (91 a game on 5.5 catches).
SMU allows 103 passing yards a game, 6th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 59.5. Projection 61 (cleared it 2 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.
Lincoln Kienholz has thrown for 307 and 332 yards over his last 2 games (320 a game, 4 TD, 0 INT).
SMU allows 103 passing yards a game, 6th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 240.5. Projection 236 (cleared it 2 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.