The Numbers Desk
← All matchups
USC
3-0 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 2-1
at
Rutgers
0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET

The number

Vegas
USC -23.5
total 59.5
Our line
USC -23.1
total 60.5
Raw model
USC -22.2
USC 42.4 · Rutgers 20.2
no edge

Edge: spread 0.4 pts · total 1.0 pts · model weight 33%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it USC by 23.1; Vegas has USC by 23.5. That is a 0.4-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Rutgers #105, USC #17 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.USC's pass game (334 passing yds/game, 13th in FBS) meets a Rutgers pass defense that ranks 76th in FBS (228 allowed).
  4. 4.USC's run game (177 rushing yds/game, 45th in FBS) meets a Rutgers run defense that ranks 89th in FBS (172 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Rutgers 0-2 (0%), USC 1-2.
  6. 6.Trust level: 33% on our numbers and 67% on the market, with 2 games of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

USC line vs Rutgers front

USC BRutgers C
MetricUSCRutgers allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.19 (#46) B3.22 (#90) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line18% (#70) C17% (#73) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground80% (#58) C67% (#52) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback2% (#28) B4% (#82) C
Yards per carry4.6 (#64) C5.0 (#89) C

Rutgers line vs USC front

Rutgers DUSC B
MetricRutgersUSC allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.81 (#90) D2.56 (#30) B
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line23% (#106) D20% (#49) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground36% (#112) D50% (#29) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback10% (#123) F4% (#75) C
Yards per carry3.9 (#100) D4.2 (#55) C

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

USC passing vs Rutgers secondary

USC ARutgers D
MetricUSCRutgers allows
Yards per pass play10.2 (#16) A8.6 (#107) D
Completion %80% (#9) A73% (#116) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards20% (#30) B15% (#70) C
Passing yards per game334 (#13) A228 (#76) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home2% (#28) B4% (#82) C
  • Trent Mosley: 76 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (118, 33)
  • Mark Bowman: 49 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (15, 83)
  • Kayden Dixon-Wyatt: 40 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (36, 43)

Rutgers passing vs USC secondary

Rutgers CUSC C
MetricRutgersUSC allows
Yards per pass play7.5 (#49) C7.2 (#79) C
Completion %61% (#78) C65% (#85) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards14% (#68) C14% (#59) C
Passing yards per game266 (#37) B170 (#35) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home10% (#123) F4% (#75) C
  • KJ Duff: 167 yds/game on 8.5 catches over the last 2 games, 5 TD (196, 137)
  • Jourdin Houston: 41 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games (42, 40)
  • Ben Black: 34 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (37, 30)

USC

Points per game
43.3
allows 18.7
last 2 games
46 pts/game
allowing 28
Rushing
177 yds/game
allows 104
Passing
334 yds/game
allows 170

QB Jayden Maiava (299 pass yds/game, 10 TD, 1 INT) · RB King Miller (79 rush yds/game) · WR Trent Mosley (85 rec yds/game)

Rutgers

Points per game
21.0
allows 32.5
last 2 games
21 pts/game
allowing 33
Rushing
110 yds/game
allows 172
Passing
266 yds/game
allows 228

QB AJ Surace (154 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INT) · RB Antwan Raymond (88 rush yds/game) · WR Antwan Raymond (13 rec yds/game)