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Florida State
1-1 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 0-2
Alabama
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 2-0
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Alabama -19.5
- total 48.5
- Our line
- Alabama -20
- total 46.6
- Raw model
- Alabama -21.1
- Florida State 10.8 · Alabama 32
no edge
Edge: spread 0.5 pts · total 1.9 pts · model weight 33%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Alabama by 20.0; Vegas has Alabama by 19.5. That is a 0.5-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Alabama #8, Florida State #78 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Alabama's pass game (206 passing yds/game, 75th in FBS) meets a Florida State pass defense that ranks 128th of 137 in FBS (348 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Alabama 2-0 (100%), Florida State 0-1-1.
- 5.Trust level: 33% on our numbers and 67% on the market, with 2 games of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Florida State line vs Alabama front
Florida State CAlabama A
| Metric | Florida State | Alabama allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.31 (#29) B | 1.73 (#2) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 14% (#39) B | 24% (#19) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 25% (#120) F | 0% (#3) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 7% (#99) D | 11% (#16) A |
| Yards per carry | 5.7 (#24) B | 2.4 (#2) A |
Alabama line vs Florida State front
Alabama CFlorida State D
| Metric | Alabama | Florida State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.25 (#40) B | 3.15 (#84) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 17% (#61) C | 12% (#113) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 80% (#60) C | 100% (#94) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 7% (#93) D | 2% (#105) D |
| Yards per carry | 5.0 (#41) B | 4.5 (#67) C |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Florida State passing vs Alabama secondary
Florida State DAlabama B
| Metric | Florida State | Alabama allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.6 (#100) D | 6.0 (#44) B |
| Completion % | 58% (#91) D | 56% (#30) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 15% (#64) C | 14% (#62) C |
| Passing yards per game | 150 (#108) D | 169 (#34) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 7% (#99) D | 11% (#16) A |
Alabama passing vs Florida State secondary
Alabama CFlorida State D
| Metric | Alabama | Florida State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.1 (#59) C | 8.6 (#106) D |
| Completion % | 63% (#64) C | 66% (#97) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 19% (#39) B | 16% (#77) C |
| Passing yards per game | 206 (#75) C | 348 (#128) F |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 7% (#93) D | 2% (#105) D |
- Ryan Williams: 87 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games (130, 43)
- Lotzeir Brooks: 39 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (23, 54)
- Rico Scott: 33 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (21, 44)
Florida State
- Points per game
- 29.0
- allows 22.0
- last 2 games
- 29 pts/game
- allowing 22
- Rushing
- 224 yds/game
- allows 114
- Passing
- 150 yds/game
- allows 348
QB Ashton Daniels (164 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Ousmane Kromah (116 rush yds/game) · WR Micahi Danzy (35 rec yds/game)
Alabama
- Points per game
- 46.5
- allows 13.5
- last 2 games
- 47 pts/game
- allowing 14
- Rushing
- 206 yds/game
- allows 55
- Passing
- 206 yds/game
- allows 169
QB Keelon Russell (222 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INT) · RB Daniel Hill (76 rush yds/game) · WR Ryan Williams (87 rec yds/game)