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Utah State
0-2 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2
Utah
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Utah -28.5
- total 56.5
- Our line
- Utah -28.3
- total 55.4
- Raw model
- Utah -27.3
- Utah State 11.7 · Utah 39.1
no edge
Edge: spread 0.2 pts · total 1.1 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Utah by 28.3; Vegas has Utah by 28.5. That is a 0.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Utah #4, Utah State #98 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Utah's pass game (306 passing yds/game, 23rd in FBS) meets a Utah State pass defense that ranks 81st in FBS (236 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Utah 2-0 (100%), Utah State 1-1.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Utah State line vs Utah front
Utah State FUtah C
| Metric | Utah State | Utah allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.17 (#127) F | 3.02 (#70) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 46% (#137) F | 13% (#110) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#134) F | 100% (#136) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 9% (#121) F | 8% (#37) B |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 (#114) D | 3.8 (#32) B |
Utah line vs Utah State front
Utah BUtah State B
| Metric | Utah | Utah State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.48 (#17) A | 2.64 (#34) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 19% (#79) C | 23% (#25) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#47) B | 67% (#59) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 3% (#47) B | 5% (#70) C |
| Yards per carry | 4.6 (#66) C | 4.0 (#44) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Utah State passing vs Utah secondary
Utah State CUtah A
| Metric | Utah State | Utah allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.4 (#51) C | 4.1 (#9) A |
| Completion % | 59% (#89) C | 45% (#2) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 13% (#85) C | 9% (#26) B |
| Passing yards per game | 236 (#56) C | 215 (#64) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 9% (#121) F | 8% (#37) B |
- Eli Wood: 72 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (90, 53)
- Javon Robinson: 66 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (31, 100)
- Demick Starling: 26 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (30, 21)
Utah passing vs Utah State secondary
Utah AUtah State B
| Metric | Utah | Utah State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 10.6 (#11) A | 5.5 (#30) B |
| Completion % | 71% (#24) B | 63% (#78) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 24% (#16) A | 12% (#39) B |
| Passing yards per game | 306 (#23) B | 236 (#81) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 3% (#47) B | 5% (#70) C |
- Noah Bennee: 74 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (35, 113)
- Braden Pegan: 57 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (81, 32)
- Wayshawn Parker: 44 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (23, 65)
Utah State
- Points per game
- 14.0
- allows 16.0
- last game
- 14 pts/game
- allowing 16
- Rushing
- 92 yds/game
- allows 120
- Passing
- 236 yds/game
- allows 236
QB Grady Brosterhous (132 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INT) · RB Javen Jacobs (39 rush yds/game) · WR Javon Robinson (66 rec yds/game)
Utah
- Points per game
- 43.0
- allows 10.0
- last game
- 43 pts/game
- allowing 10
- Rushing
- 142 yds/game
- allows 91
- Passing
- 306 yds/game
- allows 215
QB Devon Dampier (219 pass yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INT) · RB Wayshawn Parker (62 rush yds/game) · WR Braden Pegan (57 rec yds/game)