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Kentucky
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
Texas A&M
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Texas A&M -16.5
- total 50.5
- Our line
- Texas A&M -17.6
- total 49.3
- Raw model
- Texas A&M -21.9
- Kentucky 11.3 · Texas A&M 33.1
no edge
Edge: spread 1.1 pts · total 1.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Texas A&M by 17.6; Vegas has Texas A&M by 16.5. That is a 1.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Texas A&M #30, Kentucky #112 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Texas A&M's run game (182 rushing yds/game, 41st in FBS) meets a Kentucky run defense that ranks 100th in FBS (183 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Texas A&M 2-0 (100%), Kentucky 1-1.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Kentucky line vs Texas A&M front
Kentucky DTexas A&M B
| Metric | Kentucky | Texas A&M allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.90 (#77) C | 2.48 (#22) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 15% (#50) C | 21% (#39) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#132) F | 60% (#44) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 9% (#117) F | 2% (#110) D |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 (#111) D | 3.4 (#22) B |
Texas A&M line vs Kentucky front
Texas A&M BKentucky C
| Metric | Texas A&M | Kentucky allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.44 (#19) A | 3.27 (#95) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 13% (#32) B | 17% (#76) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#18) A | 75% (#74) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 6% (#80) C | 12% (#12) A |
| Yards per carry | 4.7 (#57) C | 5.2 (#99) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Kentucky passing vs Texas A&M secondary
Kentucky DTexas A&M C
| Metric | Kentucky | Texas A&M allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 4.8 (#116) D | 7.5 (#83) C |
| Completion % | 55% (#110) D | 56% (#31) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 12% (#96) D | 16% (#75) C |
| Passing yards per game | 162 (#101) D | 190 (#45) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 9% (#117) F | 2% (#110) D |
- Kenny Darby: 60 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (74, 45)
- Willie Rodriguez: 49 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (48, 49)
Texas A&M passing vs Kentucky secondary
Texas A&M DKentucky C
| Metric | Texas A&M | Kentucky allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.9 (#93) D | 6.5 (#58) C |
| Completion % | 63% (#66) C | 70% (#107) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 11% (#102) D | 15% (#72) C |
| Passing yards per game | 196 (#81) C | 168 (#33) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 6% (#80) C | 12% (#12) A |
- Isaiah Horton: 55 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (76, 33)
- Terry Bussey: 46 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (34, 58)
- Mario Craver: 38 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (41, 34)
Kentucky
- Points per game
- 17.0
- allows 45.0
- last game
- 17 pts/game
- allowing 45
- Rushing
- 95 yds/game
- allows 183
- Passing
- 162 yds/game
- allows 168
QB Kenny Minchey (224 pass yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INT) · RB Jason Patterson (66 rush yds/game) · WR Kenny Darby (60 rec yds/game)
Texas A&M
- Points per game
- 49.0
- allows 10.0
- last 2 games
- 49 pts/game
- allowing 10
- Rushing
- 182 yds/game
- allows 81
- Passing
- 196 yds/game
- allows 190
QB Marcel Reed (198 pass yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INT) · RB Rueben Owens (56 rush yds/game) · WR Terry Bussey (46 rec yds/game)