← All matchups
at
UTEP
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
Michigan
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Michigan -35.5
- total 49.5
- Our line
- Michigan -35.2
- total 48.3
- Raw model
- Michigan -33.8
- UTEP 4.9 · Michigan 38.7
no edge
Edge: spread 0.3 pts · total 1.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Michigan by 35.2; Vegas has Michigan by 35.5. That is a 0.3-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Michigan #27, UTEP #124 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Michigan's run game (126 rushing yds/game, 86th in FBS) meets a UTEP run defense that ranks 101st in FBS (185 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Michigan 1-1 (50%), UTEP 1-1.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
UTEP line vs Michigan front
UTEP FMichigan C
| Metric | UTEP | Michigan allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.38 (#117) F | 3.11 (#80) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 25% (#120) F | 18% (#70) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#123) F | 100% (#113) D |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 18% (#135) F | 9% (#25) B |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 (#52) C | 4.0 (#46) B |
Michigan line vs UTEP front
Michigan CUTEP C
| Metric | Michigan | UTEP allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.95 (#70) C | 3.38 (#112) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 10% (#14) A | 22% (#37) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 60% (#88) C | 75% (#69) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 7% (#96) D | 5% (#68) C |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 (#86) C | 5.0 (#90) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
UTEP passing vs Michigan secondary
UTEP FMichigan B
| Metric | UTEP | Michigan allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 3.1 (#132) F | 4.6 (#15) A |
| Completion % | 56% (#106) D | 58% (#44) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 5% (#126) F | 14% (#55) C |
| Passing yards per game | 69 (#133) F | 133 (#18) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 18% (#135) F | 9% (#25) B |
- Carver Cheeks: 26 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (13, 39)
- Royal Capell: 20 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (15, 25)
- Tavorus Jones: 13 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (22, 3)
Michigan passing vs UTEP secondary
Michigan DUTEP D
| Metric | Michigan | UTEP allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.4 (#81) C | 11.5 (#134) F |
| Completion % | 53% (#122) F | 65% (#88) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 14% (#70) C | 24% (#127) F |
| Passing yards per game | 138 (#115) D | 241 (#87) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 7% (#96) D | 5% (#68) C |
- JJ Buchanan: 87 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (126, 48)
- Savion Hiter: 20 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (-1, 41)
- Andrew Marsh: 14 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (15, 13)
UTEP
- Points per game
- 0.0
- allows 51.0
- last game
- 0 pts/game
- allowing 51
- Rushing
- 155 yds/game
- allows 185
- Passing
- 69 yds/game
- allows 241
QB EJ Colson (146 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Tavorus Jones (64 rush yds/game) · WR Kam Thomas (46 rec yds/game)
Michigan
- Points per game
- 15.0
- allows 11.0
- last 2 games
- 15 pts/game
- allowing 11
- Rushing
- 126 yds/game
- allows 137
- Passing
- 138 yds/game
- allows 133
QB Bryce Underwood (141 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB Jordan Marshall (38 rush yds/game) · WR Andrew Marsh (14 rec yds/game)