The Numbers Desk
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Miami (OH)
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
at
Cincinnati
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Cincinnati -14.5
total 49.5
Our line
Cincinnati -15.4
total 49.9
Raw model
Cincinnati -18.8
Miami (OH) 16.4 · Cincinnati 35.3
no edge

Edge: spread 0.9 pts · total 0.4 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Cincinnati by 15.4; Vegas has Cincinnati by 14.5. That is a 0.9-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Cincinnati #43, Miami (OH) #117 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Cincinnati's run game (252 rushing yds/game, 10th in FBS) meets a Miami (OH) run defense that ranks 88th in FBS (169 allowed).
  4. 4.Against the spread this season: Cincinnati 2-0 (100%), Miami (OH) 1-1.
  5. 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Miami (OH) line vs Cincinnati front

Miami (OH) CCincinnati C
MetricMiami (OH)Cincinnati allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.19 (#126) F3.70 (#129) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line16% (#52) C15% (#86) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#8) A0% (#5) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback5% (#68) C8% (#31) B
Yards per carry2.5 (#131) F5.5 (#111) D

Cincinnati line vs Miami (OH) front

Cincinnati AMiami (OH) C
MetricCincinnatiMiami (OH) allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.52 (#15) A3.36 (#109) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line9% (#11) A17% (#74) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#11) A33% (#20) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback6% (#76) C2% (#109) D
Yards per carry5.9 (#17) A5.8 (#118) F

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Miami (OH) passing vs Cincinnati secondary

Miami (OH) DCincinnati B
MetricMiami (OH)Cincinnati allows
Yards per pass play5.8 (#95) D5.9 (#40) B
Completion %51% (#124) F52% (#13) A
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards13% (#81) C14% (#57) C
Passing yards per game228 (#62) C211 (#58) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home5% (#68) C8% (#31) B
  • Lynel Billups-Williams: 52 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (31, 73)
  • Maleek Huggins: 39 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (23, 54)
  • Scoop Smith: 37 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (50, 23)

Cincinnati passing vs Miami (OH) secondary

Cincinnati CMiami (OH) F
MetricCincinnatiMiami (OH) allows
Yards per pass play4.9 (#112) D10.6 (#129) F
Completion %69% (#35) B77% (#125) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards12% (#92) D18% (#98) D
Passing yards per game83 (#129) F477 (#137) F
Sack ratepressure the front gets home6% (#76) C2% (#109) D
  • JaVonnie Gibson: 67 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (54, 79)
  • Isaiah Johnson: 10 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (-1, 20)
  • Larenzo Fenner: 7 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (11, 2)

Miami (OH)

Points per game
14.0
allows 59.0
last game
14 pts/game
allowing 59
Rushing
48 yds/game
allows 169
Passing
228 yds/game
allows 477

QB David McComb (237 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Lazaro Rogers (32 rush yds/game) · WR Scoop Smith (37 rec yds/game)

Cincinnati

Points per game
34.0
allows 15.0
last game
34 pts/game
allowing 15
Rushing
252 yds/game
allows 183
Passing
83 yds/game
allows 211

QB JC French (161 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Gi'Bran Payne (105 rush yds/game) · WR Malachi Henry (44 rec yds/game)