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Temple
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
Toledo
1-1 · ATS 1-0-1 · O/U 2-0
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Toledo -5.5
- total 50.5
- Our line
- Toledo -5.6
- total 50
- Raw model
- Toledo -6
- Temple 20.9 · Toledo 27
no edge
Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total 0.5 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Toledo by 5.6; Vegas has Toledo by 5.5. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Toledo #18, Temple #68 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Temple's run game (183 rushing yds/game, 40th in FBS) meets a Toledo run defense that ranks 92nd in FBS (174 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Toledo 1-0-1 (100%), Temple 2-0.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Temple line vs Toledo front
Temple CToledo B
| Metric | Temple | Toledo allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.17 (#48) B | 2.76 (#49) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 22% (#99) D | 22% (#35) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 75% (#71) C | 25% (#17) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 4% (#60) C | 8% (#30) B |
| Yards per carry | 5.7 (#21) A | 3.8 (#31) B |
Toledo line vs Temple front
Toledo FTemple C
| Metric | Toledo | Temple allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 1.14 (#136) F | 1.84 (#4) A |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 44% (#136) F | 8% (#129) F |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 0% (#124) F | 33% (#24) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 9% (#112) D | 4% (#83) C |
| Yards per carry | 5.3 (#29) B | 3.0 (#8) A |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Temple passing vs Toledo secondary
Temple DToledo C
| Metric | Temple | Toledo allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 4.9 (#111) D | 6.1 (#47) B |
| Completion % | 59% (#85) C | 76% (#122) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 4% (#127) F | 8% (#20) A |
| Passing yards per game | 113 (#123) F | 218 (#67) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 4% (#60) C | 8% (#30) B |
- Jovanni Bermudez: 23 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (40, 6)
Toledo passing vs Temple secondary
Toledo CTemple D
| Metric | Toledo | Temple allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.7 (#43) B | 9.0 (#115) D |
| Completion % | 57% (#95) D | 77% (#124) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 17% (#47) B | 19% (#104) D |
| Passing yards per game | 178 (#91) D | 242 (#90) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 9% (#112) D | 4% (#83) C |
- Adjatay Dabbs: 68 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (101, 34)
- Bryson Hammer: 53 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (49, 57)
- Connor Walendzak: 11 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (18, 4)
Temple
- Points per game
- 9.0
- allows 27.0
- last game
- 9 pts/game
- allowing 27
- Rushing
- 183 yds/game
- allows 109
- Passing
- 113 yds/game
- allows 242
QB Jaxon Smolik (58 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB Keveun Mason (117 rush yds/game) · WR Jovanni Bermudez (23 rec yds/game)
Toledo
- Points per game
- 20.0
- allows 30.0
- last game
- 20 pts/game
- allowing 30
- Rushing
- 95 yds/game
- allows 174
- Passing
- 178 yds/game
- allows 218
QB John Alan Richter (224 pass yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INT) · RB Connor Walendzak (55 rush yds/game) · WR Terrell Crosby Jr. (11 rec yds/game)