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NC State
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
Vanderbilt
2-0 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:45 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Vanderbilt -3.5
- total 50.5
- Our line
- Vanderbilt -4.5
- total 51.6
- Raw model
- Vanderbilt -8.3
- NC State 23.9 · Vanderbilt 32.3
no edge
Edge: spread 1.0 pts · total 1.1 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Vanderbilt by 4.5; Vegas has Vanderbilt by 3.5. That is a 1.0-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Vanderbilt #48, NC State #121 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Vanderbilt's run game (118 rushing yds/game, 97th in FBS) meets a NC State run defense that ranks 129th of 137 in FBS (268 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Vanderbilt 0-2 (0%), NC State 1-1.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
NC State line vs Vanderbilt front
NC State BVanderbilt B
| Metric | NC State | Vanderbilt allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.96 (#69) C | 3.03 (#71) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 14% (#40) B | 21% (#46) B |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#1) A | 50% (#39) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 7% (#92) D | 14% (#5) A |
| Yards per carry | 3.6 (#113) D | 5.2 (#102) D |
Vanderbilt line vs NC State front
Vanderbilt CNC State C
| Metric | Vanderbilt | NC State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.41 (#116) D | 3.31 (#104) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 24% (#115) D | 14% (#92) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#38) B | 75% (#66) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 6% (#82) C | 8% (#29) B |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 (#116) D | 4.8 (#82) C |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
NC State passing vs Vanderbilt secondary
NC State FVanderbilt B
| Metric | NC State | Vanderbilt allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 2.8 (#134) F | 6.0 (#43) B |
| Completion % | 56% (#105) D | 45% (#5) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 3% (#131) F | 14% (#58) C |
| Passing yards per game | 81 (#131) F | 215 (#63) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 7% (#92) D | 14% (#5) A |
- Keenan Jackson: 65 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (6, 123)
- Preston Douglas: 36 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (13, 58)
- Joshisa Trader: 36 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (19, 52)
Vanderbilt passing vs NC State secondary
Vanderbilt CNC State F
| Metric | Vanderbilt | NC State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 7.0 (#63) C | 12.5 (#136) F |
| Completion % | 55% (#111) D | 82% (#134) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 15% (#59) C | 25% (#132) F |
| Passing yards per game | 230 (#61) C | 150 (#27) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 6% (#82) C | 8% (#29) B |
- Junior Sherrill: 82 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games (70, 94)
- Jayvontay Conner: 59 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games (30, 87)
NC State
- Points per game
- 8.0
- allows 34.0
- last game
- 8 pts/game
- allowing 34
- Rushing
- 75 yds/game
- allows 268
- Passing
- 81 yds/game
- allows 150
QB CJ Bailey (183 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB Jayden Scott (74 rush yds/game) · WR Deandre Desinor (2 rec yds/game)
Vanderbilt
- Points per game
- 35.0
- allows 26.0
- last game
- 35 pts/game
- allowing 26
- Rushing
- 118 yds/game
- allows 152
- Passing
- 230 yds/game
- allows 215
QB Jared Curtis (135 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Sedrick Alexander (50 rush yds/game) · WR Junior Sherrill (82 rec yds/game)