The Numbers Desk
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Eastern Michigan
1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 0-3
at
Wisconsin
1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:30 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Wisconsin -24.5
total 45.5
Our line
Wisconsin -23
total 43.7
Raw model
Wisconsin -17.1
Eastern Michigan 9.6 · Wisconsin 26.7
no edge

Edge: spread 1.5 pts · total 1.8 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Wisconsin by 23.0; Vegas has Wisconsin by 24.5. That is a 1.5-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Wisconsin #104, Eastern Michigan #93 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Wisconsin's pass game (256 passing yds/game, 45th in FBS) meets a Eastern Michigan pass defense that ranks 95th in FBS (252 allowed).
  4. 4.Against the spread this season: Wisconsin 0-2 (0%), Eastern Michigan 1-2.
  5. 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Eastern Michigan line vs Wisconsin front

Eastern Michigan CWisconsin D
MetricEastern MichiganWisconsin allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.71 (#99) D3.18 (#87) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line17% (#64) C0% (#137) F
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground90% (#49) C75% (#72) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback5% (#62) C0% (#124) F
Yards per carry4.3 (#83) C3.9 (#39) B

Wisconsin line vs Eastern Michigan front

Wisconsin CEastern Michigan C
MetricWisconsinEastern Michigan allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.36 (#118) F3.17 (#85) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line21% (#86) C20% (#54) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#26) B73% (#64) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback6% (#86) C3% (#103) D
Yards per carry2.7 (#130) F5.1 (#94) D

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Eastern Michigan passing vs Wisconsin secondary

Eastern Michigan DWisconsin D
MetricEastern MichiganWisconsin allows
Yards per pass play4.7 (#117) F8.2 (#101) D
Completion %62% (#71) C66% (#95) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards7% (#119) F17% (#93) D
Passing yards per game173 (#93) D239 (#85) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home5% (#62) C0% (#124) F
  • Harold Mack: 61 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (72, 49)
  • Ben Prosper: 56 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games (81, 30)
  • Joshua Long: 19 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (34, 4)

Wisconsin passing vs Eastern Michigan secondary

Wisconsin BEastern Michigan C
MetricWisconsinEastern Michigan allows
Yards per pass play8.3 (#37) B6.5 (#60) C
Completion %62% (#72) C58% (#42) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards23% (#20) A14% (#56) C
Passing yards per game256 (#45) B252 (#95) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home6% (#86) C3% (#103) D
  • Tyrell Henry: 67 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (42, 91)
  • Chris Brooks Jr.: 39 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (38, 39)
  • Eugene Hilton Jr.: 32 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (31, 32)

Eastern Michigan

Points per game
18.7
allows 26.3
last 2 games
18 pts/game
allowing 26
Rushing
108 yds/game
allows 156
Passing
173 yds/game
allows 252

QB Noah Kim (190 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INT) · RB Amareon Blue (59 rush yds/game) · WR Amareon Blue (11 rec yds/game)

Wisconsin

Points per game
13.0
allows 41.0
last game
13 pts/game
allowing 41
Rushing
79 yds/game
allows 118
Passing
256 yds/game
allows 239

QB Colton Joseph (195 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Abu Sama III (78 rush yds/game) · WR Tyrell Henry (67 rec yds/game)