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Arizona State
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
Kansas
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET · neutral site
The number
- Vegas
- Arizona State -5.5
- total 50.5
- Our line
- Arizona State -5.7
- total 50.6
- Raw model
- Arizona State -6.7
- Arizona State 28.8 · Kansas 22
no edge
Edge: spread 0.2 pts · total 0.1 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Arizona State by 5.7; Vegas has Arizona State by 5.5. That is a 0.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Kansas #122, Arizona State #51 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Arizona State's pass game (350 passing yds/game, 6th in FBS) meets a Kansas pass defense that ranks 112th of 137 in FBS (292 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Kansas 1-1 (50%), Arizona State 1-1.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Arizona State line vs Kansas front
Arizona State BKansas D
| Metric | Arizona State | Kansas allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.84 (#86) C | 2.72 (#43) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 19% (#76) C | 18% (#61) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#30) B | 100% (#120) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 3% (#40) B | 0% (#126) F |
| Yards per carry | 4.3 (#80) C | 4.6 (#74) C |
Kansas line vs Arizona State front
Kansas CArizona State C
| Metric | Kansas | Arizona State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.02 (#61) C | 2.61 (#33) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 11% (#16) A | 19% (#60) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 75% (#70) C | 100% (#121) F |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 9% (#115) D | 7% (#39) B |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 (#89) C | 3.5 (#23) B |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Arizona State passing vs Kansas secondary
Arizona State BKansas D
| Metric | Arizona State | Kansas allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 10.3 (#15) A | 9.7 (#120) F |
| Completion % | 61% (#80) C | 63% (#75) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 24% (#17) A | 23% (#125) F |
| Passing yards per game | 350 (#6) A | 292 (#112) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 3% (#40) B | 0% (#126) F |
- Reed Harris: 163 yds/game on 7.5 catches over the last 2 games, 4 TD (137, 189)
- Omarion Miller: 66 yds/game on 8.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (102, 29)
Kansas passing vs Arizona State secondary
Kansas DArizona State C
| Metric | Kansas | Arizona State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.5 (#103) D | 5.7 (#37) B |
| Completion % | 45% (#132) F | 60% (#49) C |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 21% (#28) B | 15% (#66) C |
| Passing yards per game | 186 (#85) C | 154 (#29) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 9% (#115) D | 7% (#39) B |
- Nik McMillan: 91 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (130, 52)
- Dylan Edwards: 26 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (34, 18)
- Keaton Kubecka: 23 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (8, 38)
Arizona State
- Points per game
- 20.0
- allows 48.0
- last game
- 20 pts/game
- allowing 48
- Rushing
- 113 yds/game
- allows 111
- Passing
- 350 yds/game
- allows 154
QB Cutter Boley (321 pass yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INT) · RB Kyson Brown (73 rush yds/game) · WR Grayson Rigdon (55 rec yds/game)
Kansas
- Points per game
- 21.0
- allows 38.0
- last game
- 21 pts/game
- allowing 38
- Rushing
- 118 yds/game
- allows 176
- Passing
- 186 yds/game
- allows 292
QB Isaiah Marshall (207 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INT) · RB Yasin Willis (45 rush yds/game) · WR Tate Nagy (20 rec yds/game)