The Numbers Desk
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Georgia
2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 2-0
at
Arkansas
1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Georgia -24.5
total 54.5
Our line
Georgia -25.2
total 56.3
Raw model
Georgia -28.1
Georgia 45.9 · Arkansas 17.8
no edge

Edge: spread 0.7 pts · total 1.8 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Georgia by 25.2; Vegas has Georgia by 24.5. That is a 0.7-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Arkansas #131, Georgia #1 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Georgia's pass game (259 passing yds/game, 41st in FBS) meets a Arkansas pass defense that ranks 116th of 137 in FBS (306 allowed).
  4. 4.Georgia's run game (215 rushing yds/game, 24th in FBS) meets a Arkansas run defense that ranks 62nd in FBS (142 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Arkansas 0-2 (0%), Georgia 2-0.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Georgia line vs Arkansas front

Georgia BArkansas D
MetricGeorgiaArkansas allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.60 (#8) A3.48 (#116) D
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line16% (#57) C19% (#57) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#34) B100% (#135) F
Sack ratesacks per dropback0% (#15) A3% (#87) C
Yards per carry6.9 (#9) A4.6 (#70) C

Arkansas line vs Georgia front

Arkansas CGeorgia B
MetricArkansasGeorgia allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.02 (#62) C2.83 (#52) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line13% (#28) B24% (#22) B
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#46) B0% (#12) A
Sack ratesacks per dropback8% (#101) D5% (#62) C
Yards per carry3.8 (#104) D4.0 (#47) B

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Georgia passing vs Arkansas secondary

Georgia BArkansas F
MetricGeorgiaArkansas allows
Yards per pass play10.4 (#14) A10.6 (#128) F
Completion %64% (#56) C71% (#115) D
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards20% (#34) B24% (#129) F
Passing yards per game259 (#41) B306 (#116) D
Sack ratepressure the front gets home0% (#15) A3% (#87) C
  • Sacovie White: 52 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (34, 70)
  • Craig Dandridge: 46 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (36, 56)
  • Chauncey Bowens: 39 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (32, 45)

Arkansas passing vs Georgia secondary

Arkansas FGeorgia A
MetricArkansasGeorgia allows
Yards per pass play4.1 (#126) F3.6 (#5) A
Completion %45% (#134) F49% (#9) A
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards9% (#110) D3% (#3) A
Passing yards per game215 (#68) C142 (#22) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home8% (#101) D5% (#62) C
  • Chris Marshall: 71 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games (79, 63)
  • Ty Lockwood: 32 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (22, 41)
  • Sutton Smith: 21 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (43, -2)

Georgia

Points per game
70.0
allows 20.0
last game
70 pts/game
allowing 20
Rushing
215 yds/game
allows 133
Passing
259 yds/game
allows 142

QB Gunner Stockton (218 pass yds/game, 8 TD, 0 INT) · RB Nate Frazier (64 rush yds/game) · WR Sacovie White (52 rec yds/game)

Arkansas

Points per game
10.0
allows 43.0
last game
10 pts/game
allowing 43
Rushing
91 yds/game
allows 142
Passing
215 yds/game
allows 306

QB KJ Jackson (203 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INT) · RB Braylen Russell (31 rush yds/game) · WR Jelani Watkins (7 rec yds/game)