The Numbers Desk
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Kent State
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0
at
Ohio State
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Ohio State -52.5
total 59.5
Our line
Ohio State -52.4
total 57.7
Raw model
Ohio State -52
Kent State -0.9 · Ohio State 51.2
no edge

Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total 1.8 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Ohio State by 52.4; Vegas has Ohio State by 52.5. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Ohio State #21, Kent State #135 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Ohio State's pass game (343 passing yds/game, 10th in FBS) meets a Kent State pass defense that ranks 127th of 137 in FBS (347 allowed).
  4. 4.Ohio State's run game (179 rushing yds/game, 42nd in FBS) meets a Kent State run defense that ranks 131st of 137 in FBS (279 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Ohio State 2-0 (100%), Kent State 1-1.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Kent State line vs Ohio State front

Kent State COhio State B
MetricKent StateOhio State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.73 (#94) D2.40 (#18) A
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line21% (#88) C20% (#50) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground100% (#9) A86% (#87) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback4% (#56) C4% (#79) C
Yards per carry4.4 (#77) C3.4 (#20) A

Ohio State line vs Kent State front

Ohio State CKent State D
MetricOhio StateKent State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.12 (#49) C4.01 (#135) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line19% (#77) C8% (#130) F
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground67% (#79) C100% (#104) D
Sack ratesacks per dropback5% (#70) C3% (#94) D
Yards per carry5.8 (#19) A7.5 (#133) F

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Kent State passing vs Ohio State secondary

Kent State DOhio State A
MetricKent StateOhio State allows
Yards per pass play3.0 (#133) F4.0 (#6) A
Completion %61% (#79) C57% (#34) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards4% (#128) F8% (#18) A
Passing yards per game73 (#132) F149 (#25) B
Sack ratepressure the front gets home4% (#56) C4% (#79) C
  • Wayne Harris: 47 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (15, 78)
  • Da'Realyst Clark: 44 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (-3, 90)
  • Hunter Hopperton: 14 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (12, 16)

Ohio State passing vs Kent State secondary

Ohio State BKent State F
MetricOhio StateKent State allows
Yards per pass play9.4 (#25) B10.5 (#127) F
Completion %70% (#32) B81% (#132) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards25% (#12) A24% (#130) F
Passing yards per game343 (#10) A347 (#127) F
Sack ratepressure the front gets home5% (#70) C3% (#94) D
  • Jeremiah Smith: 158 yds/game on 8.0 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (151, 164)
  • Devin Mccuin: 51 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (97, 5)
  • Brandon Inniss: 28 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (36, 19)

Kent State

Points per game
0.0
allows 57.0
last game
0 pts/game
allowing 57
Rushing
106 yds/game
allows 279
Passing
73 yds/game
allows 347

QB Dru Deshields (156 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INT) · RB Mason Blakemore (47 rush yds/game) · WR Mason Blakemore (15 rec yds/game)

Ohio State

Points per game
39.5
allows 13.5
last 2 games
40 pts/game
allowing 14
Rushing
179 yds/game
allows 102
Passing
343 yds/game
allows 149

QB Julian Sayin (299 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INT) · RB Bo Jackson (79 rush yds/game) · WR Jeremiah Smith (158 rec yds/game)