The Numbers Desk
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Buffalo
1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1
at
Penn State
2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Penn State -40.5
total 49.5
Our line
Penn State -39.1
total 48
Raw model
Penn State -33.6
Buffalo 4.2 · Penn State 37.8
no edge

Edge: spread 1.4 pts · total 1.5 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Penn State by 39.1; Vegas has Penn State by 40.5. That is a 1.4-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Penn State #16, Buffalo #92 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Penn State's pass game (307 passing yds/game, 22nd in FBS) meets a Buffalo pass defense that ranks bottom five in FBS (133rd of 137) (386 allowed).
  4. 4.Against the spread this season: Penn State 1-1 (50%), Buffalo 0-2.
  5. 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Buffalo line vs Penn State front

Buffalo DPenn State B
MetricBuffaloPenn State allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.35 (#119) F2.52 (#28) B
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line22% (#97) D26% (#17) A
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground0% (#135) F60% (#42) B
Sack ratesacks per dropback2% (#31) B6% (#56) C
Yards per carry3.1 (#126) F4.2 (#59) C

Penn State line vs Buffalo front

Penn State CBuffalo C
MetricPenn StateBuffalo allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run2.55 (#106) D2.85 (#57) C
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line11% (#18) A18% (#64) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground71% (#75) C80% (#82) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback4% (#49) C0% (#131) F
Yards per carry3.5 (#117) F3.9 (#36) B

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Buffalo passing vs Penn State secondary

Buffalo DPenn State B
MetricBuffaloPenn State allows
Yards per pass play6.2 (#86) C4.4 (#13) A
Completion %53% (#118) F64% (#81) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards14% (#74) C4% (#5) A
Passing yards per game272 (#36) B117 (#8) A
Sack ratepressure the front gets home2% (#31) B6% (#56) C
  • Chance Morrow: 111 yds/game on 9.0 catches over the last 2 games, 5 TD (48, 173)
  • Clint Walker: 23 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (41, 5)
  • Trevor Wilson: 23 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (14, 32)

Penn State passing vs Buffalo secondary

Penn State ABuffalo D
MetricPenn StateBuffalo allows
Yards per pass play11.1 (#7) A10.2 (#121) F
Completion %75% (#13) A58% (#40) B
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards27% (#7) A24% (#126) F
Passing yards per game307 (#22) B386 (#133) F
Sack ratepressure the front gets home4% (#49) C0% (#131) F
  • Koby Howard: 115 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (161, 68)
  • Chase Sowell: 46 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (33, 58)
  • Benjamin Brahmer: 44 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (8, 79)

Buffalo

Points per game
20.0
allows 33.0
last game
20 pts/game
allowing 33
Rushing
72 yds/game
allows 151
Passing
272 yds/game
allows 386

QB Elijah Holmes (127 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Messiah Burch (45 rush yds/game) · WR Terrance Shelton Jr. (6 rec yds/game)

Penn State

Points per game
36.0
allows 4.5
last 2 games
36 pts/game
allowing 5
Rushing
139 yds/game
allows 112
Passing
307 yds/game
allows 117

QB Rocco Becht (270 pass yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INT) · RB Carson Hansen (66 rush yds/game) · WR Koby Howard (115 rec yds/game)