The Numbers Desk
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Akron
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 2-0
at
Minnesota
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1

College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET

The number

Vegas
Minnesota -24.5
total 49.5
Our line
Minnesota -24.4
total 47.9
Raw model
Minnesota -24.1
Akron 8.7 · Minnesota 32.8
no edge

Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total 1.6 pts · model weight 20%

Why

  1. 1.Our number makes it Minnesota by 24.4; Vegas has Minnesota by 24.5. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
  2. 2.Power ratings: Minnesota #120, Akron #129 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
  3. 3.Akron's run game (155 rushing yds/game, 56th in FBS) meets a Minnesota run defense that ranks 126th of 137 in FBS (257 allowed).
  4. 4.Minnesota's pass game (226 passing yds/game, 63rd in FBS) meets a Akron pass defense that ranks 129th of 137 in FBS (356 allowed).
  5. 5.Against the spread this season: Minnesota 1-1 (50%), Akron 2-0.
  6. 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.

The trenches

Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.

Akron line vs Minnesota front

Akron CMinnesota D
MetricAkronMinnesota allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run3.11 (#52) C3.60 (#125) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line19% (#73) C18% (#67) C
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground50% (#92) D80% (#81) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback6% (#73) C0% (#129) F
Yards per carry4.8 (#51) C5.7 (#116) D

Minnesota line vs Akron front

Minnesota DAkron D
MetricMinnesotaAkron allows
Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run1.77 (#133) F3.64 (#126) F
Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line31% (#128) F13% (#104) D
Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground50% (#105) D80% (#77) C
Sack ratesacks per dropback4% (#54) C0% (#118) F
Yards per carry1.9 (#135) F6.6 (#125) F

Receivers vs the secondary

Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.

Akron passing vs Minnesota secondary

Akron DMinnesota F
MetricAkronMinnesota allows
Yards per pass play4.2 (#122) F10.3 (#123) F
Completion %85% (#5) A73% (#118) F
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards0% (#135) F23% (#123) F
Passing yards per game146 (#111) D227 (#75) C
Sack ratepressure the front gets home6% (#73) C0% (#129) F
  • Sean Patrick: 38 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (11, 65)
  • Elijah Alexander: 31 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games, 3 TD (6, 55)
  • Jordan Gant: 13 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (5, 20)

Minnesota passing vs Akron secondary

Minnesota DAkron D
MetricMinnesotaAkron allows
Yards per pass play4.5 (#119) F10.2 (#122) F
Completion %65% (#53) C63% (#68) C
Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards8% (#116) D23% (#124) F
Passing yards per game226 (#63) C356 (#129) F
Sack ratepressure the front gets home4% (#54) C0% (#118) F
  • Javon Tracy: 75 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games (98, 51)
  • Noah Jennings: 73 yds/game on 5.0 catches over the last 2 games (57, 88)
  • Jalen Smith: 39 yds/game on 4.0 catches over the last 2 games (26, 51)

Akron

Points per game
16.0
allows 38.0
last game
16 pts/game
allowing 38
Rushing
155 yds/game
allows 206
Passing
146 yds/game
allows 356

QB Cibastian Broughton (169 pass yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INT) · RB Sean Patrick (50 rush yds/game) · WR Brandon Hills (21 rec yds/game)

Minnesota

Points per game
13.0
allows 38.0
last game
13 pts/game
allowing 38
Rushing
25 yds/game
allows 257
Passing
226 yds/game
allows 227

QB Drake Lindsey (272 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Darius Taylor (36 rush yds/game) · WR TJ Thomas Jr. (32 rec yds/game)