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Bowling Green
0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1
Iowa State
1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Iowa State -23.5
- total 44.5
- Our line
- Iowa State -24.1
- total 42.6
- Raw model
- Iowa State -26.6
- Bowling Green 4.3 · Iowa State 30.9
no edge
Edge: spread 0.6 pts · total 1.9 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Iowa State by 24.1; Vegas has Iowa State by 23.5. That is a 0.6-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Iowa State #28, Bowling Green #137 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Iowa State's run game (138 rushing yds/game, 75th in FBS) meets a Bowling Green run defense that ranks 128th of 137 in FBS (265 allowed).
- 4.Against the spread this season: Iowa State 1-1 (50%), Bowling Green 0-2.
- 5.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Bowling Green line vs Iowa State front
Bowling Green BIowa State C
| Metric | Bowling Green | Iowa State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.61 (#104) D | 2.84 (#55) C |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 17% (#62) C | 17% (#75) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#40) B | 60% (#46) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#18) A | 0% (#135) F |
| Yards per carry | 3.3 (#122) F | 3.2 (#16) A |
Iowa State line vs Bowling Green front
Iowa State CBowling Green D
| Metric | Iowa State | Bowling Green allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.74 (#92) D | 4.00 (#134) F |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 15% (#45) B | 12% (#112) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 50% (#108) D | 80% (#83) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#19) A | 3% (#93) D |
| Yards per carry | 4.1 (#93) D | 8.0 (#137) F |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Bowling Green passing vs Iowa State secondary
Bowling Green DIowa State C
| Metric | Bowling Green | Iowa State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 5.3 (#107) D | 6.4 (#55) C |
| Completion % | 59% (#87) C | 70% (#110) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 6% (#124) F | 7% (#12) A |
| Passing yards per game | 90 (#127) F | 191 (#47) B |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#18) A | 0% (#135) F |
- Jeremiah Scoby: 61 yds/game on 6.0 catches over the last 2 games (102, 19)
- Eli Jacon-Duffy: 31 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (46, 16)
- Brennan Ridley: 26 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (44, 8)
Iowa State passing vs Bowling Green secondary
Iowa State DBowling Green D
| Metric | Iowa State | Bowling Green allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.2 (#88) C | 8.8 (#110) D |
| Completion % | 53% (#120) F | 84% (#137) F |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 16% (#55) C | 13% (#47) B |
| Passing yards per game | 117 (#121) F | 281 (#110) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#19) A | 3% (#93) D |
- Omari Hayes: 47 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (54, 39)
Bowling Green
- Points per game
- 7.0
- allows 56.0
- last game
- 7 pts/game
- allowing 56
- Rushing
- 96 yds/game
- allows 265
- Passing
- 90 yds/game
- allows 281
QB Jay Kastantin (173 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INT) · RB Austyn Dendy (45 rush yds/game) · WR Brennan Ridley (26 rec yds/game)
Iowa State
- Points per game
- 13.0
- allows 16.0
- last game
- 13 pts/game
- allowing 16
- Rushing
- 138 yds/game
- allows 93
- Passing
- 117 yds/game
- allows 191
QB Jaylen Raynor (151 pass yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INT) · RB Aiden Flora (67 rush yds/game) · WR Omari Hayes (47 rec yds/game)