College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Kansas State -20.5
- total 49.5
- Our line
- Kansas State -20.6
- total 49.3
- Raw model
- Kansas State -20.9
- Tulane 13.9 · Kansas State 34.8
Edge: spread 0.1 pts · total 0.2 pts · model weight 20%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Kansas State by 20.6; Vegas has Kansas State by 20.5. That is a 0.1-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Kansas State #25, Tulane #57 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.Kansas State's run game (295 rushing yds/game, 4th in FBS) meets a Tulane run defense that ranks 116th of 137 in FBS (218 allowed).
- 4.Kansas State's pass game (273 passing yds/game, 34th in FBS) meets a Tulane pass defense that ranks 57th in FBS (210 allowed).
- 5.Against the spread this season: Kansas State 2-0 (100%), Tulane 0-2.
- 6.Trust level: 20% on our numbers and 80% on the market, with 1 game of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
Tulane line vs Kansas State front
| Metric | Tulane | Kansas State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 2.33 (#121) F | 3.36 (#110) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 24% (#118) F | 16% (#81) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#12) A | 0% (#11) A |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 4% (#53) C | 17% (#3) A |
| Yards per carry | 5.7 (#23) B | 4.8 (#83) C |
Kansas State line vs Tulane front
| Metric | Kansas State | Tulane allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.38 (#24) B | 3.27 (#96) D |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 13% (#26) B | 15% (#88) C |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 100% (#33) B | 80% (#79) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 0% (#14) A | 2% (#113) D |
| Yards per carry | 7.4 (#4) A | 5.1 (#93) D |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
Tulane passing vs Kansas State secondary
| Metric | Tulane | Kansas State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.9 (#66) C | 1.7 (#2) A |
| Completion % | 59% (#86) C | 45% (#3) A |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 13% (#78) C | 0% (#2) A |
| Passing yards per game | 183 (#87) C | 40 (#2) A |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 4% (#53) C | 17% (#3) A |
- Destyn Hill: 79 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (67, 91)
- Garrett Mmahat: 19 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (-3, 40)
- Anthony Brown: 19 yds/game on 2.5 catches over the last 2 games (16, 21)
Kansas State passing vs Tulane secondary
| Metric | Kansas State | Tulane allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 8.0 (#41) B | 7.0 (#72) C |
| Completion % | 65% (#51) C | 58% (#38) B |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 12% (#94) D | 18% (#103) D |
| Passing yards per game | 273 (#34) B | 210 (#57) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 0% (#14) A | 2% (#113) D |
- Joshua Manning: 65 yds/game on 6.5 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (33, 97)
- Joe Jackson: 48 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 2 TD (48, 48)
- Brandon White: 25 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (20, 29)
Tulane
- Points per game
- 15.5
- allows 20.5
- last 2 games
- 16 pts/game
- allowing 21
- Rushing
- 143 yds/game
- allows 218
- Passing
- 183 yds/game
- allows 210
QB Kadin Semonza (176 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INT) · RB Jaylin Lucas (109 rush yds/game)
Kansas State
- Points per game
- 34.0
- allows 7.0
- last game
- 34 pts/game
- allowing 7
- Rushing
- 295 yds/game
- allows 120
- Passing
- 273 yds/game
- allows 40
QB Avery Johnson (196 pass yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INT) · RB Rodney Fields Jr. (103 rush yds/game) · WR Brandon White (25 rec yds/game)
Props to watch
All props →Destyn Hill has 67 and 91 receiving yards over his last 2 games (79 a game on 4.5 catches).
Kansas State allows 40 passing yards a game, 2nd in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 49.5. Projection 52 (cleared it 2 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.
Rodney Fields Jr. has gone for 101 and 105 rushing yards over his last 2 games (103 a game, 7.6 a carry).
Tulane allows 218 rushing yards a game, 116th of 137 in FBS against the run.
FanDuel: 88.5. Projection 100 (cleared it 2 of 2). Form and matchup both say over.
Avery Johnson has thrown for 199 and 192 yards over his last 2 games (196 a game, 6 TD, 2 INT).
Tulane allows 210 passing yards a game, 57th in FBS against the pass.
FanDuel: 205.5. Projection 200 (cleared it 0 of 2). No edge either way; the game script decides.