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at
North Texas
1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1
Texas State
0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1
College football Week 3 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET
The number
- Vegas
- Texas State -3
- total 63.5
- Our line
- Texas State -2.8
- total 67.2
- Raw model
- Texas State -2.3
- North Texas 36.1 · Texas State 38.4
Lean: Over 63.5
Edge: spread 0.2 pts · total 3.7 pts · model weight 33%
Why
- 1.Our number makes it Texas State by 2.8; Vegas has Texas State by 3. That is a 0.2-point edge which is not enough to act on.
- 2.Power ratings: Texas State #80, North Texas #62 of 137 on opponent-adjusted efficiency; SP+ anchors the early-season number.
- 3.North Texas's pass game (248 passing yds/game, 50th in FBS) meets a Texas State pass defense that ranks 115th of 137 in FBS (304 allowed).
- 4.Texas State's run game (221 rushing yds/game, 21st in FBS) meets a North Texas run defense that ranks 50th in FBS (130 allowed).
- 5.Totals: we project 67.2 points (46.5 combined scoring average) against a 63.5 total, so the over.
- 6.Against the spread this season: Texas State 0-2 (0%), North Texas 2-0.
- 7.Trust level: 33% on our numbers and 67% on the market, with 2 games of data behind the thinner side. Ratings this early are pulled toward the league average.
The trenches
Offensive line against the defensive front. Grades are ours, from where each unit ranks on these numbers.
North Texas line vs Texas State front
North Texas CTexas State B
| Metric | North Texas | Texas State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.03 (#59) C | 2.67 (#38) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 18% (#66) C | 24% (#21) A |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 33% (#117) F | 71% (#63) C |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 3% (#45) B | 1% (#116) D |
| Yards per carry | 4.7 (#56) C | 4.6 (#75) C |
Texas State line vs North Texas front
Texas State BNorth Texas C
| Metric | Texas State | North Texas allows |
|---|---|---|
| Line yards per carryyards the line is credited with on every run | 3.23 (#43) B | 2.71 (#40) B |
| Stuff rateruns stopped at or behind the line | 12% (#23) B | 14% (#94) D |
| Power success3rd/4th and 2 or less, converted on the ground | 60% (#85) C | 63% (#47) B |
| Sack ratesacks per dropback | 2% (#26) B | 6% (#53) C |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 (#33) B | 4.1 (#51) C |
Receivers vs the secondary
Each passing game against the pass defense across from it, plus the receivers’ last games.
North Texas passing vs Texas State secondary
North Texas BTexas State D
| Metric | North Texas | Texas State allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 8.3 (#38) B | 7.8 (#91) D |
| Completion % | 69% (#34) B | 71% (#114) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 25% (#11) A | 17% (#83) C |
| Passing yards per game | 248 (#50) C | 304 (#115) D |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 3% (#45) B | 1% (#116) D |
- Corri Milliner: 66 yds/game on 3.5 catches over the last 2 games (66, 65)
- Justin Stevenson: 45 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (47, 43)
- Jahiem White: 35 yds/game on 4.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (36, 34)
Texas State passing vs North Texas secondary
Texas State CNorth Texas D
| Metric | Texas State | North Texas allows |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per pass play | 6.5 (#78) C | 8.2 (#98) D |
| Completion % | 63% (#60) C | 66% (#98) D |
| Explosive pass ratepasses of 16+ yards | 12% (#91) D | 18% (#99) D |
| Passing yards per game | 189 (#84) C | 205 (#53) C |
| Sack ratepressure the front gets home | 2% (#26) B | 6% (#53) C |
- Kylen Evans: 51 yds/game on 3.0 catches over the last 2 games (6, 96)
- Chris Dawn Jr.: 47 yds/game on 5.5 catches over the last 2 games, 1 TD (40, 54)
- Tucker Cusano: 42 yds/game on 2.0 catches over the last 2 games (58, 25)
North Texas
- Points per game
- 30.0
- allows 29.0
- last 2 games
- 30 pts/game
- allowing 29
- Rushing
- 175 yds/game
- allows 130
- Passing
- 248 yds/game
- allows 205
QB Tayven Jackson (213 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INT) · RB Jahiem White (93 rush yds/game) · WR Josiah Martin (25 rec yds/game)
Texas State
- Points per game
- 16.5
- allows 45.0
- last 2 games
- 17 pts/game
- allowing 45
- Rushing
- 221 yds/game
- allows 153
- Passing
- 189 yds/game
- allows 304
QB Brad Jackson (171 pass yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INT) · RB Torrance Burgess Jr. (92 rush yds/game) · WR Chris Dawn Jr. (47 rec yds/game)